The spike in global oil prices on Friday saw Brent crude, the international benchmark, trade at just over US$113 a barrel, up 4 percent on the day. West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, rose 3 percent to just under US$100 a barrel. The jump follows reports in the New York Times that the Trump administration has prepared plans for military strikes on Iran after the US midterm elections. The United States has also reportedly ordered some non-emergency government staff to leave Saudi Arabia, as Iran-backed Houthi rebels continue to target the kingdom with missile strikes. Global oil prices peaked this year at US$126 a barrel in April during the US-Iran war. For New Zealand motorists, petrol prices typically lag global oil price moves by one to two weeks. According to fuel monitoring website Gaspy, the average price of 91 unleaded petrol is around $3.55 per litre, down slightly from earlier this month. Diesel is averaging $3.18 per litre.
Oil prices surge as US reportedly plans new Iran strikes after midterms
Brent crude rises 4% to over US$113 a barrel on renewed Middle East tensions
Analysis
Why This Matters
- Higher oil prices feed into petrol costs, affecting consumers and potentially driving inflation. New Zealand drivers may see price increases within a week or two.
- The possibility of renewed US-Iran conflict risks further energy price spikes, with global benchmarks already near $113 a barrel.
- The timing of reported plans after US midterm elections suggests a political dimension that could shape energy markets through early 2027.
Background
Oil prices have been volatile this year. They hit a 2026 high of US$126 in April during the US-Iran war that began earlier in 2026. Prices then moderated but have climbed again on reports of possible new hostilities. The New York Times reported that the Trump administration has drawn up contingency plans for strikes on Iran, though no action is expected until after the US midterm elections. Separately, the US has ordered some non-emergency government personnel to leave Saudi Arabia, a sign of heightened security concerns as Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, continue missile attacks on Saudi territory.
Key Perspectives
The New York Times report: The Trump administration has prepared plans for renewed military strikes on Iran, timed after the US midterm elections. No official confirmation or denial has been reported. Markets: Oil traders are pricing in the risk of supply disruptions from the Middle East, driving Brent and WTI higher. The April peak of $126 shows how severely a direct conflict can affect prices. Consumers: Petrol prices in New Zealand lag crude moves by one to two weeks. Current average 91 unleaded at $3.55 per litre is down slightly from earlier this month, but further rises are expected if oil remains elevated.
What to Watch
- The outcome of US midterm elections and any subsequent announcement of military action against Iran.
- Brent crude price movement: a sustained break above $115 could signal further escalation.
- Houthi missile attacks on Saudi Arabia and any US response that draws it deeper into the conflict.
Sources
- Oil prices surge on reports US again considering Iran strikes · RNZ New Zealand Headlines
Checked
11 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 9 supported.
Show each claim
- Partly supportedThe US reportedly plans new strikes on Iran after the midterms.RNZ New Zealand Headlines: “The spike follows reports in the New York Times that the Trump Administration has drawn up plans for renewed strikes on Iran after next month's US midterm election.”
- SupportedBrent crude rose 4% to just over US$113 a barrel.RNZ New Zealand Headlines: “At one point during trading on Friday the global benchmark Brent crude was up 4 percent at just over US$113 (NZ$198) a barrel.”
- SupportedGlobal oil prices reached their highest level since May.RNZ New Zealand Headlines: “Global oil prices have hit their highest level since May on fears of a resumption of fighting between the US and Iran in the Middle East.”
- SupportedThe rise in oil prices followed reports of plans for renewed strikes on Iran.RNZ New Zealand Headlines: “The spike follows reports in the New York Times that the Trump Administration has drawn up plans for renewed strikes on Iran after next month's US midterm election.”
- SupportedWest Texas Intermediate rose 3% to just under US$100 a barrel.RNZ New Zealand Headlines: “West Texas Intermediate, which was more closely linked to the US market, was up 3 percent to just under US$100 a barrel.”
- SupportedThe US reportedly ordered some non-emergency government staff to leave Saudi Arabia.RNZ New Zealand Headlines: “In addition, the US has reportedly ordered some non-emergency government staff to leave Saudi Arabia.”
- SupportedIran-backed Houthi rebels continue to target Saudi Arabia with missile strikes.RNZ New Zealand Headlines: “That comes as Iran-backed Houthi rebels continue to target Saudi Arabia with missile strikes.”
- Partly supportedOil prices peaked at US$126 a barrel in April during the US-Iran war.RNZ New Zealand Headlines: “Global oil prices peaked this year at US$126 a barrel in April, in the wake of the US-Iran war.”
- SupportedNew Zealand petrol prices tend to lag global oil-price moves by one to two weeks.RNZ New Zealand Headlines: “Petrol prices in New Zealand tend to lag global oil price moves by a week or two.”
- SupportedThe average price of 91 unleaded petrol is around NZ$3.55 per litre, down slightly from earlier this month.RNZ New Zealand Headlines: “According to fuel monitoring website Gaspy, the average price of 91 unleaded is around $3.55 per litre, down slightly on where it was earlier this month.”
- SupportedDiesel is averaging NZ$3.18 per litre.RNZ New Zealand Headlines: “Diesel is $3.18 per litre.”