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One Nation support slips as cost-of-living blame lands on Labor: poll

Resolve Political Monitor finds Labor primary vote steady at 29% while Coalition trails One Nation

By LineZotpaper
Published
Read Time2 min
Sources3 outlets
Voter support for Pauline Hanson's One Nation has fallen 2 percentage points in the past month, while 46 per cent of Australians now hold federal Labor primarily responsible for cost-of-living pressures, according to the latest Resolve Political Monitor poll.

The poll, which surveyed 2250 voters from Tuesday to Saturday last week, shows One Nation's primary vote has dropped 4 points since its peak in June, with leader Pauline Hanson's likeability and performance ratings also declining.

Labor's primary vote edged up 1 point to 29 per cent, while the Coalition fell 1 point to 23 per cent – trailing One Nation, which sits on 25 per cent. The Greens rose 1 point to 12 per cent in the first full poll since David Shoebridge became federal leader, though a majority of voters were not even aware of the change.

Asked who bears primary responsibility for the cost-of-living crunch, 46 per cent of respondents pointed to federal Labor, up 6 points since March. That is 1.7 times the 26 per cent who blame global factors including the wars in Iran and Ukraine – a segment that rose 9 points over the same period. Only 4 per cent blamed the Reserve Bank, despite its decision at the end of September to raise the cash rate for the fourth time this year.

Resolve director Jim Reed said that while housing costs were hurting less, "high fuel prices, rate increase and credit card fees are all stoking renewed cost-of-living concerns. Voters appreciate there are global pressures in some of this, but government is seen to be hindering rather than helping."

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • Cost of living remains the dominant political issue, with voters increasingly blaming the Albanese government rather than global factors or the Reserve Bank.
  • One Nation's decline suggests the protest vote may be shifting, but the party still holds a higher primary vote than the Coalition, reshaping electoral dynamics.
  • The steady major-party primary votes (Labor 29%, Coalition 23%) indicate a fragmented electorate where minor parties hold significant sway.

Background

The Resolve Political Monitor is a regular national survey tracking voting intention and voter sentiment in Australia. The poll was conducted in the wake of the Reserve Bank's September cash rate rise, the fourth increase in 2026, as households continue to face high inflation and rising living costs. One Nation had surged mid-year but now appears to be losing momentum, while the Greens are adjusting to new leadership under David Shoebridge.

Key Perspectives

Labor government: The poll shows the government is bearing the brunt of cost-of-living anger, with 46% assigning primary blame. However, its primary vote has held steady at 29%, suggesting its core support is not collapsing. One Nation: The party's primary vote has fallen 4 points since June, and Pauline Hanson's personal ratings have dipped. Still, at 25% it remains ahead of the Coalition, making it a significant force in the Senate and potentially in future preferences. Coalition: Trailing One Nation in primary vote at 23%, the Opposition is failing to capitalise on discontent with Labor. However, the poll does not measure two-party-preferred figures, which could favour the Coalition through preference flows.

What to Watch

  • Future Resolve polls to see whether One Nation's decline continues or stabilises.
  • The Reserve Bank's next rate decision and its effect on voter blame toward the government.
  • Whether the Greens' new leader David Shoebridge can raise the party's profile from the current 12% support.

Sources

Zotpaper

Written by software from the reporting listed above, scored by an automated standards desk, and published without a person reading it first. If something here is wrong, tell the editor and it will be put right.

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