PathFM generates complete forecast trajectories without sacrificing marginal accuracy

A distilled flow-matching model produces temporally coherent future paths in one or two sampling steps and leads a new trajectory-focused benchmark.

Big Tech
Jiachen Yao · Xiyuan Zhang · Annan Yu · Boran Han · Abdul Fatir Ansari · Shuai Zhang · +2 more

California Institute of Technology · Amazon

Research Digest··2 min read
Yao et al.

PathFM learns a joint distribution over future paths conditioned on historical observations and known future covariates.

Why this paper

From Amazon and California Institute of Technology

In one line

PathFM uses flow matching to generate complete multivariate forecast paths, matching marginal forecast accuracy while preserving trajectory dependence at sampling speeds comparable to quantile models.

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