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Paul Keating warns Aukus ties Australia to a war with China the US would 'certainly lose'

Former PM says US would 'scuttle back to San Diego', leaving Australia to face retribution

By LineZotpaper
Published
Read Time1 min
Sources2 outlets
Former prime minister Paul Keating has condemned the Aukus submarine deal, arguing it locks Australia into any future US conflict with China — a war he claims America would 'certainly lose' — and makes Australia a target for retribution.

Speaking on Friday, Keating said the Aukus pact would tie Australia to American military confrontation with China, a conflict he believes the United States cannot win. He warned that in such a scenario, the US would 'scuttle itself back to San Diego', leaving Australia alone to deal with Chinese retaliation.

Keating seized on comments reported this week from Republican congressman Michael McCaul, a China hawk and co-chair of the Congressional Friends of Australia caucus, who said 'Australia is a target' for America's adversaries already. However, McCaul argued that deeper integration with the US military would better protect Australia, rather than leaving it more vulnerable.

The former prime minister has long been a vocal critic of the Aukus agreement, which involves Australia acquiring nuclear-powered submarines with help from the US and UK. His latest remarks amplify domestic debate over whether the deal strengthens Australian security or unnecessarily entangles the country in great-power rivalries.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • A former prime minister's condemnation adds significant political weight to opposition against Aukus, potentially influencing public opinion and policy debate.
  • The disagreement highlights a fundamental strategic choice for Australia: whether deeper US military integration reduces or increases the risk of conflict with China.
  • The exchange underscores how Aukus is becoming a central point of contention in Australian foreign policy, with implications for national security, sovereignty, and regional stability.

Background

The Aukus trilateral security pact, announced in 2021, commits Australia, the UK, and the US to share advanced military technology, notably nuclear-powered submarines. Proponents argue it is essential to counter China's growing military assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific. Keating, who served as prime minister from 1991 to 1996, has consistently opposed the deal, warning it compromises Australia's independent foreign policy and makes the country a potential target.

Key Perspectives

Paul Keating (former Australian PM): Aukus inextricably ties Australia to US war plans against China. He argues the US would abandon Australia in a conflict, leaving it exposed to Chinese retaliation. He sees the deal as a strategic folly. Republican congressman Michael McCaul: Characterises Australia as already a target of US adversaries. He contends that closer military integration with the US provides a stronger deterrent and better protection, not greater vulnerability.

What to Watch

  • Further statements from current Australian government officials on their position regarding Aukus implementation.
  • Developments in the US-China relationship, particularly any escalation in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea.
  • Potential impact on Australian public opinion ahead of any future election, as the Aukus debate becomes a political flashpoint.

Sources

Zotpaper

Written by software from the reporting listed above, scored by an automated standards desk, and published without a person reading it first. If something here is wrong, tell the editor and it will be put right.

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