The Quaest poll puts Bolsonaro on 46 percent of the vote compared with Lula's 44 percent, a difference within the two-percentage-point margin of error. It is the first Quaest survey since the October 4 first round, when Bolsonaro beat Lula by less than two points despite most polls suggesting the leftist president was on track for a marginal first-round win. Neither candidate secured the majority needed to avoid a run-off.
Both campaigns are now working to consolidate support. Lula has sought to rally his base after the first-round loss, holding large rallies that have drawn millions of people onto the streets. Bolsonaro has made progress securing endorsements from right and centre-right parties, aiming to build a coalition friendly to business interests and a policy agenda sought by investors. Analysts have noted that Bolsonaro has not benefited as much as might have been expected from the elimination of several conservative candidates, whose supporters would presumably prefer him to Lula.
The policy stakes were highlighted on Wednesday, when Brazil's Senate approved a constitutional amendment reducing the country's maximum workweek from 44 to 40 hours without a reduction in pay. The measure delivers a key priority for Lula as he presses his case to an electorate anxious about cost-of-living issues.