Canada produces more than 75% of the world's maple syrup, with 90% of that output coming from Quebec. The province's strategic reserve, three warehouses capable of holding about 218,000 barrels, has been steadily drained as Americans accelerated purchases to get ahead of anticipated tariffs in Mr Trump's global trade war.
Total syrup exports jumped nearly 16% last year, accelerating from 9% growth in 2024. Exports through the first eight months of this year have slowed sharply, rising just 2.5% annually. Production, however, has fallen 5% last year, according to Canada's statistics agency.
The Quebec Maple Syrup Producers, which oversees the reserve, has predicted the stockpile will be empty by February. While new supplies will continue to be produced, the reserve will not be available to cushion any production wobbles, which depend heavily on weather and can be volatile.
Simon Doré-Ouellet, the deputy general manager at the Quebec Maple Syrup Producers, told the Toronto Star that the market's supply of syrup is secure for the coming year. "It is clear, however, that the strategic reserve will need to be replenished over the next few years," he added. "And a good production year in 2027 would be welcome even though we have little control over that."
Quebec has boosted its production capacity by 50% over the past six years, Mr Doré-Ouellet said, adding more than 21 million new taps where sap can be collected from maple trees.
About 65% of Canada's syrup exports go to the United States, down from 80% two decades ago, as Canadian producers have diversified to more markets beyond the US.
The depletion of Quebec's syrup reserve mirrors drawdowns of other strategic stockpiles globally. The Iran war has forced oil-consuming countries to tap crude stockpiles, and the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to its lowest level since 1982. Japan drew down its rice reserve last year as prices soared amid bad weather and natural disaster threats that sparked panic buying, although it has since swung to a record surplus.
China maintains a strategic pork reserve. In 2019, an outbreak of swine fever sent prices higher, prompting Beijing to release supplies. Today, pork prices have slumped 39% over the past four years as an anemic consumer economy has weighed on demand, while government encouragement to boost production has resulted in oversupply. China has repeatedly purchased pork for the strategic reserve to prop up the market, but "there is little to do from the demand side," Hannah Liu, a China economist at Nomura, told the New York Times in May. "You cannot order other enterprises to purchase more pork."