Fewer than one in 10 Queensland voters say Mr Miles is doing a very good job as opposition leader, and his net performance rating is minus 14 compared with Mr Crisafulli's plus 23, according to the latest exclusive Resolve Political Monitor polling.
The survey, run in two waves from September 1 to 5 and October 6 to 10 with 868 registered voters and a margin of error of 3 per cent, shows the LNP on 32 per cent primary support, Labor on 24 per cent and One Nation on 21 per cent. Small lifts for the Greens, to 11 per cent, and independents, to 7 per cent, have taken non-major parties to 44 per cent of the primary vote.
Among 434 voters asked additional questions in the October wave, 30 per cent said Mr Miles had done a good job, a figure that fell below a quarter in the must-win seats the party needs to reclaim. Mr Miles' net likeability was unchanged at minus 6, while Mr Crisafulli's rose from plus 16 to plus 20. The Premier also leads as preferred premier on 41 per cent to Mr Miles' 24.
This month marks two years since the LNP swept to power for the first time in more than a decade, a milestone both leaders regard as a turning point towards the 2028 ballot. The results are likely to add to internal Labor anxiety. Wider reporting has described shadow ministers leaking against Mr Miles, and the party has an informal Christmas deadline to settle on an electable leader, after internal analysis blamed the 2024 defeat on Mr Miles having only 10 months of lead-in before that poll.
Despite the grim numbers, senior party room sources say reports of a pre-Christmas coup are exaggerated. Mr Miles retains the numbers, with the United Workers Union behind him and the Left faction dominant. Shannon Fentiman, also of the Left, and Right faction leader Cameron Dick are viewed as strong, electable performers, but neither has the support to mount a genuine challenge, for now.