Of the $US1 billion spent by the Republican campaign apparatus since September 1 this year, only $US11 million has gone toward ads promoting a candidate's relationship with Donald Trump, according to analysis published by multiple Australian news outlets. In battleground seats, 41 of 62 Republican House and Senate candidates have distanced themselves from Trump in some way recently.
At a midterm convention in Dallas last month, Trump expected all battleground Senate candidates to appear, but a third avoided the event. At the weekend, Trump appeared in Georgia with gubernatorial candidate Rick Jackson, who did not mention the president's name once in his five-minute speech introducing him.
The shift is a reversal from the 2018 midterms, when 27% of Republican ads demonstrated loyalty to Trump. During primary contests this cycle, 70% of ad spending tied candidates to Trump, but that figure collapsed once the general election began and Trump's unpopularity set in, the analysis found. Ads now focus on core policies such as immigration, transgender issues and tax cuts without naming the president.
Republican campaigners are trying to sell voters on a Republican government while hoping voters overlook who leads that government, according to the analysis. Democrats are using their advertising to tie Republican candidates to a president whose approval rating is now lower than after the January 6 insurrection.
The analysis notes that Republican redistricting efforts in 2025 assumed a midterm environment favouring Trump's party. Instead, the House is now generally presumed to be a safe Democratic lock, with many redrawn seats shifting toward Democrats.
Elon Musk has injected more than a quarter-billion US dollars ($395 million) into Republican efforts, mostly in Texas, where agricultural states are showing signs of rejecting Republican leadership amid soaring diesel prices and Trump's tariff regime.