Russian missiles and drones struck three major power plants in the Kyiv region on Tuesday night, together with a key electrical substation, in a campaign that Ukrainian and European officials say mirrors a Russian military assessment intended to make the capital unliveable.
The document, titled "Analysis of Ukraine's Energy, Housing and Utilities Sectors," was intercepted by Ukrainian intelligence last month and seen by the Guardian. It sets out goals ranging from "degrading the quality of life" of Ukrainians through power outages to fully shutting off the water supply, which the authors predict would cause the "deterioration of sanitary conditions and the forced outflow of residents from cities."
European officials familiar with the document say it was likely produced by analytical departments linked to the Russian military or intelligence agencies, and that copies have circulated in Ukraine in previous years. The Guardian is withholding some specifics at the request of Ukraine's energy ministry, which said publication could aid further strikes.
Tuesday's strikes hit Combined Heat and Power Plants 4 and 5 and the Trypillya Thermal Power Plant, as well as a major substation that transfers electricity to the capital from two of the country's main nuclear plants. The assessment identifies bottlenecks in the grid and prescribes the number of ballistic and hypersonic cruise missiles and jet-powered drones needed to knock them out, and it contemplates strikes on high-risk sites, including the switchyards at several nuclear power plants. The targets form part of the "Kyiv energy ring" that supplies a city of 3 million people.
A worst-case scenario, according to expert projections, could destroy more than 90% of the power Kyiv is budgeted for each winter and cause blackouts lasting up to 20 hours a day until damaged equipment is repaired.
"There are two large documents, written very coldly and very clearly, with tables showing the number of weapons needed for each facility to destroy it," Ukraine's energy minister, Denys Shmyhal, said last month. "The types of weapons range from ballistic missiles to jet-powered and conventional drones. We understand how they are going to act." Shmyhal first briefed European allies about the plan last month. The assessment was first reported by the New York Times.
The attacks have continued even as Donald Trump unilaterally declared an "energy ceasefire" between Moscow and Kyiv last week, and as Washington and Kyiv are embroiled in a major political quarrel. Rolling blackouts and water outages in Kyiv and Kharkiv have increasingly resembled the blueprint's predictions.