Senate control hinges on candidates party leaders tried to stop

Thune and Schumer face unexpected races as former colleagues cross party lines

By LineZotpaper

Published23 October 2026

Read Time2 min

Control of the United States Senate may be decided by candidates whom neither party leader wanted, according to an Axios analysis. Majority Leader John Thune and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer are both stuck with nominees who defeated their preferred primary candidates, forcing expensive and uncertain general election battles in at least five states.

In Texas, Thune's efforts to block Attorney General Ken Paxton from winning the Republican Senate nomination failed. The party is now spending more than $329 million against Democratic state Representative James Talarico, and the race remains a nail-biter. In Georgia, Republican leaders could not convince Governor Brian Kemp to run. The eventual nominee, Representative Mike Collins, has struggled to keep pace with the fundraising of incumbent Senator Jon Ossoff, and GOP money is retreating.

Schumer faces comparable headaches. In Maine, his endorsed candidate, Governor Janet Mills, faded from contention after Graham Platner's implosion, leaving Democrats with State Senate President Troy Jackson to face Republican incumbent Susan Collins. In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed defeated Representative Haley Stevens in the primary but won by only a single point despite double-digit leads in polls. He now polls within the margin of error against former Representative Mike Rogers. In Minnesota, Peggy Flanagan, who said she would not support Schumer as leader, beat establishment-backed Representative Angie Craig in the primary. The Cook Political Report shifted her race against Republican Michele Tafoya toward Republicans even as other races shifted toward Democrats.

Former senators are adding to the unpredictability. Former Senator Joe Manchin, who became an independent after being elected as a Democrat, is campaigning for Republican Senator Susan Collins of Maine. Former Senator Kyrsten Sinema, who also left the Democratic Party, boosted Republican Jay Feely in Arizona and voted for him in the GOP primary. Former Republican Senator Jeff Flake endorsed Democrat Jon Ossoff in Georgia.

There are bright spots for Democrats. Former Governor Roy Cooper has all but put North Carolina to bed, and former Senator Sherrod Brown is keeping the Ohio race too close for Republican Senator Jon Husted's comfort.

Analysis

Why This Matters

The outcome of these five Senate races will determine which party controls the chamber for the next two years, shaping legislation, judicial confirmations, and the presidential agenda.
Party leaders are losing control over their primary processes, forcing them to pour resources into defending seats against candidates they actively tried to block.
Cross-party endorsements from former senators signal a further erosion of traditional party discipline and could shift narrow races.

Background

The 2026 midterm elections have been defined by primary upsets and failed candidate recruitment. In several key states, party establishments backed different candidates but lost to insurgencies or were unable to land their top choices. The resulting general election map is forcing both parties to defend unexpected seats and invest heavily in must-win states where the political terrain was not what leaders planned.

Key Perspectives

Senate Republican Leadership: Mr Thune faces expensive defensive fights in Texas and Georgia after losing primary battles he tried to steer, and now must spend heavily on candidates he did not choose.
Senate Democratic Leadership: Mr Schumer watches progressive nominees in Minnesota and Maine distance themselves from his leadership while key races tighten unexpectedly.
Former Senators: The cross-party endorsements from Messrs Manchin, Sinema, and Flake are injecting unpredictable dynamics, potentially swaying narrow contests in ways that defy party lines.
Electoral Analysts: The Cook Political Report's shift of Minnesota toward Republicans, while moving other races toward Democrats, points to an unusually fragmented national environment.

What to Watch

The Texas Senate race, where massive Republican spending meets a surprisingly competitive Democratic challenger.
Whether Senator Ossoff's fundraising advantage in Georgia can overcome the state's Republican tilt.
The ability of former Senator Brown to hold Ohio in a state that has shifted right.
Further cross-party endorsements or campaign appearances that could redirect resources or voter perceptions.

Sources

Senate control hinges on unwanted nominees · Axios

Checked

12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 6 supported.

Show each claim

Partly supportedSenate control hinges on candidates party leaders actively tried to stop.Axios: “Senate control hinges on unwanted nominees. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) are living out their midterm nightmares — with nominees they didn't want”
SupportedThune and Schumer face unexpected races as former colleagues cross party lines.Axios: “Thune and Schumer are living out their midterm nightmares — with nominees they didn't want and former colleagues they no longer control.”
SupportedCandidates neither party leader wanted may decide Senate control.Axios: “Together, Schumer and Thune are stuck with five Senate races in which their party establishments thought they had a better chance of winning with someone else.”
Partly supportedThe leaders’ unwanted nominees are forcing expensive and uncertain general-election battles in at least five states.Axios: “Together, Schumer and Thune are stuck with five Senate races in which their party establishments thought they had a better chance of winning with someone else.”
SupportedThune tried to stop Ken Paxton from winning the Republican Senate nomination, but failed.Axios: “Thune's efforts to stop Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton from winning the party's Senate nomination failed.”
SupportedRepublicans are spending more than $329 million to defeat James Talarico.Axios: “Now Republicans are spending more than $329 million to defeat state Rep. James Talarico— and it's still a nail-biter.”
Not in the sourcesJanet Mills faded from contention after Graham Platner’s implosion.Axios: “Schumer endorsed Gov. Janet Mills, but Graham Platner's implosion left Democrats with backup Troy Jackson against Sen. Susan Collins.”
Not in the sourcesTroy Jackson is the State Senate President.Axios
Partly supportedEl-Sayed won the primary by one point despite double-digit leads in polls.Axios: “But he won by just one point even though primary polls showed him up by double digits.”
Partly supportedSinema boosted Jay Feely in Arizona and voted for him in the GOP primary.Axios: “Former Sen. Kyrsten Sinema , who also flipped from Democrat to independent before leaving office, is boosting Republican Jay Feely in her home House district. She even voted for him in the GOP primary, as Axios scooped.”
SupportedFlanagan said she would not support Schumer as leader and beat establishment-backed Angie Craig in the primary.Axios: “Peggy Flanagan ran as a progressive, said she would not support Schumer as leader and bested establishment-backed Rep. Angie Craig.”
SupportedManchin became an independent after being elected as a Democrat and is campaigning for Susan Collins.Axios: “Former Sen. Joe Manchin, who flipped to independent in 2024 after being elected as a Senate Democrat, is campaigning for Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), as Semafor reported.”