The PQ added 56 seats to its roster and more than doubled its vote share compared to the 2022 election, according to results reported by the Guardian. But it fell five seats short of a majority, making its pledge to hold a referendum after Donald Trump leaves office in 2028 nearly impossible to deliver.
It also won with barely 28 percent of the popular vote, the lowest percentage for any government in Canada's electoral history, according to polling analyst Philippe Fournier. The vast majority of Quebecers voted for parties that want nothing to do with a referendum, a reflection of the province's 30-year aversion to another bruising debate about Quebec's place in Canada, particularly in the wake of Trump's tariffs and threats against the country.
The result casts doubt not only on a referendum but on other PQ initiatives, including abolishing the monarchy and applying Quebec's strict language laws to the province's colleges. The new government will also face stiff opposition to plans to reduce immigration levels, which has angered farmers and the business community.
The election saw the total collapse of the governing Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), in power since 2018. The party did not win a single seat and harvested just a third of its vote share compared to 2022. Its leader, Christine Fréchette, lost her own riding to the PQ and resigned on Tuesday afternoon.
The most popular politician in the province remains the Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney, in large part because of his resistance to Trump. That has left PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon in an awkward position for a separatist: he cannot be seen as a threat to Canadian unity. He essentially acknowledged this in his victory speech, pledging to be a "good-faith collaborator" with the rest of the country and even addressing the crowd in English, before announcing Tuesday that he would prevent the lieutenant governor, who represents the British crown, from swearing in his new government.
"Seventy percent of Quebecers don't want a referendum," said John Parisella, who served as chief of staff to two Quebec premiers and the province's delegate general in New York and Washington. "And every time they see Trump's picture on the screen at night, it does nothing to improve a desire for separation. For a lot of Quebecers, the link with Canada is absolutely crucial, even if it isn't necessarily emotional."
The vote may have less to do with embracing separatism than punishing the current government. In a province whose political discourse has long focused on the federalist-separatist divide, the election also suggested a return to normalcy, with separatists returning to the PQ's fold while the federalist vote dispersed.