Similar language models draw more decisive votes than rankings predict

Across 1.8 million Chatbot Arena votes, closely related models violated the assumptions behind its Bradley-Terry ranking system, although correcting for this barely changed the leaderboard.

Independent
Soovadeep Bakshi · Apurba Bose · Aishwarya Bose · Sandip Nandi

Independent Researcher

Research Digest··3 min read
Bakshi and colleagues test whether Chatbot Arena's single-score ranking model accurately describes comparisons between closely related language models.

8 million Chatbot Arena votes using model lineage fixed independently of voting outcomes.

Why this paper

From Independent Researcher

In one line

Chatbot Arena’s Bradley-Terry scores understate how decisively voters distinguish closely related models, though correcting this barely changes leaderboard order.

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