Solar geoengineering war game ends in breakdown, alarming participants

An international war game held in London last month to test whether the world could cooperate in governing sun-dimming climate technology ended in failure, with participants unable to reach agreement and the exercise producing a result worse than expected.

The simulation, titled Exploring Geopolitical Tipping Points and Climate Cooling Strategies, brought together foreign-relations experts, scientists, military personnel and former government officials from around the world at Queen Mary University of London. Players took on the roles of national governments, climate NGOs and nonprofits, indigenous groups, and technology companies. Their task was to prevent an uncontrolled race to develop a technology that could cool the planet but comes with risks that could reshape life on Earth.

Colleen Golja, a climate researcher who served as technical adviser to the exercise, said she entered expecting science and reason to guide the decisions.

“I thought that would be such an easy thing. Like, we can all agree to do ethical research and make sure it's for the better of all humans,” she said. “And boy, was I wrong.”

The first in a planned series of war games, the exercise saw the hoped-for agreement on ethical research fail to materialise, according to the account published this week. The experience suggests the international community remains far from any consensus on who should decide whether and how the planet's climate could be altered.

Analysis

Why This Matters

Solar geoengineering could cool the planet quickly, but the war game suggests there is no agreement on who controls it, raising the risk of unilateral action by a single state or company.
The technology's effects would be global: what one country does to the atmosphere affects everyone, yet no framework exists for making that decision collectively.
The breakdown inside a room of experts and officials is an early warning that diplomatic institutions are unprepared for choices that could reshape life on Earth.

Background

Solar radiation management, the broad term for techniques that reflect sunlight away from Earth, has been discussed for decades as a fast and relatively cheap possible response to climate change. It does not remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, and researchers warn it could disrupt rainfall patterns and regional climates, with effects falling unevenly across countries. No binding international treaty currently governs geoengineering research or deployment, and proposals for governance remain deeply contested.

Key Perspectives

Researchers: Scientists such as Golja hoped the exercise would show that ethical, cooperative research is achievable, and expressed dismay at how quickly that hope collapsed. Governments and security experts: Participants playing states confronted the strategic logic that pushes countries toward acting alone, since any one nation could benefit from cooling while the costs are borne globally. Critics and civil society: Skeptics argue that developing the technology could weaken pressure to cut emissions at the source, and that those most affected, including indigenous communities, would have little say in decisions made by states and tech companies.

What to Watch

Whether the organisers release a fuller account or recommendations from this exercise and its follow-ups.
Subsequent war games in the series, which will show whether agreement becomes easier or harder as the scenarios progress.
Any move by governments or technology companies toward real-world experiments, which would signal the uncontrolled race the exercise was designed to prevent.

Analysis

Why This Matters

Background

Key Perspectives

What to Watch

Sources