SpaceX shares surge on Morgan Stanley upgrade, Musk regains trillionaire status

Analyst calls stock 'cheap' as company prepares for Starship test flight and Q3 earnings

By LineZotpaper
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SpaceX shares rose nearly 8% on Monday, closing at $171.09 and reaching their highest level since the company's record initial public offering in June. The rally pushed Elon Musk's net worth back above $1 trillion, following a bullish note from Morgan Stanley and a weekend of multiple historic flights.

The jump followed a Sunday note from Morgan Stanley analysts, who called SpaceX 'cheap' at current prices and highlighted 'future AI product releases, Starship progress, and additional neocloud contracts.' The bank recommends buying the stock and has a $300 price target, implying an upside of about 75% from Monday's close.

Late last week, SpaceX conducted multiple historic flights in a single day, including a crewed mission for NASA to the International Space Station and a separate launch of Google AI chips into orbit.

The Morgan Stanley analysts suggested investors buy SpaceX shares before the company's next planned test flight for its massive Starship rocket and ahead of its third-quarter earnings report expected in late October.

Starship is SpaceX's next-generation spacecraft, the largest rocket ever built, designed to be fully reusable with both its upper stage and booster able to land safely back on Earth. The system is expected to supercharge SpaceX's business, bringing Starlink satellites into orbit as well as cargo and crews from other companies and agencies. Should SpaceX attempt a Starship upper stage ship catch in its next test flight, that could be 'the biggest positive catalyst since the IPO,' the analysts wrote. In prior test flights, the Starship upper stage has made splashdowns in the ocean but has not been proven reusable.

SpaceX is also getting a boost from its artificial intelligence business, gained through the acquisition of Musk's xAI last year and expanded through the recent acquisition of Cursor. While the company's homegrown Grok model has not taken off compared to leading models from OpenAI and Anthropic, SpaceX is generating hefty revenue by renting out compute capacity to the likes of Google and Anthropic.

Musk has the benefit of close ties to the Trump administration. On Wednesday, the Pentagon appointed Musk as co-lead of Project Meridian, an initiative that involves identifying weapons, technologies and military capabilities the U.S. may need in future wars. SpaceX makes a large chunk of its revenue from the U.S. government and increasingly from defense contracts, earning over $12.7 billion to date from its work with the Defense Department, according to FedScout.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • SpaceX's stock performance reflects investor confidence in its dual role as a launch provider and AI infrastructure player, two of the most capital-intensive sectors in technology.
  • Musk's return to trillionaire status underscores the financial leverage of his cross-holdings, particularly SpaceX's growing defense and government contracts.
  • The upcoming Starship test flight and Q3 earnings will be key catalysts that could further move the stock and set expectations for the company's valuation.

Background

SpaceX went public in a record-setting IPO in June 2026. The company has since diversified beyond launch services into AI cloud computing through the acquisition of Musk's xAI and the developer tool Cursor. Starship, the largest rocket ever built, is central to SpaceX's long-term revenue plan, enabling rapid deployment of Starlink satellites and heavy cargo missions. The company also generates significant income from U.S. government and defense contracts, now exceeding $12.7 billion.

Key Perspectives

Investors (bullish): Morgan Stanley sees SpaceX as undervalued and recommends buying before the next Starship test and Q3 earnings. The bank's $300 price target implies considerable upside. Competitors and partners: Companies like Google and Anthropic are renting AI compute from SpaceX, indicating the infrastructure business is real. However, SpaceX's own Grok model trails market leaders. Critics and skeptics: The stock's high valuation depends on future milestones like Starship reusability and continued contract wins. The company's reliance on government business and Musk's political ties may introduce risk if administration priorities shift.

What to Watch

  • The outcome of the next Starship test flight, particularly whether SpaceX attempts an upper stage catch.
  • SpaceX's Q3 earnings report, expected in late October, which will provide updated financials and guidance.
  • New neocloud contracts and AI-related revenue announcements, as well as further defense awards under Project Meridian.

Sources

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