Oil exports from the Gulf have resumed significantly despite a surge in attacks on ships around the Strait of Hormuz, with maritime intelligence firm Kpler reporting that Gulf oil flows, excluding Iran, recovered to more than 81 percent of pre-war levels in September. At least seven incidents involving tankers have been reported in the past week, according to shipping intelligence service Marisks, as shipping companies face higher freight, insurance and security costs.
The recovery in oil flows comes amid a deteriorating security situation in one of the world's most important energy corridors. Before the US-Israel war on Iran began on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz typically handled about 125 large commercial vessels a day and accounted for about 20 percent of global crude and liquefied natural gas supplies. In retaliation for US-Israeli attacks, Iran effectively closed the strait, while Washington maintained a blockade on Iranian ports.
On October 1, the Kuwaiti-flagged Very Large Crude Carrier MT Kazimah III caught fire after being struck while travelling through the strait. Five staff were rescued safely. On October 4, the Liberian-flagged Aframax tanker Lipsi was struck northeast of Oman’s Jazirat Umm al-Fayarin, damaging its engine room, with no casualties reported.
India’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said 12 crew members on a Panama-flagged tanker were injured in an attack by an unknown projectile while crossing the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency has reported at least one attack a day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2. On Monday, a tanker entering the strait near Oman was hailed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and ordered to turn around or risk attack, according to UKMTO.
Despite these incidents, Kpler data shows Middle East crude exports exceeded pre-war levels on 14 days during September. Experts and trackers note the increased flows may be difficult to sustain as attacks continue and costs rise.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The Strait of Hormuz is a vital chokepoint for global energy supplies; disruptions directly affect oil and LNG prices worldwide.
- Rising attacks increase shipping costs (freight, insurance, security) that are passed on to consumers, contributing to higher fuel prices.
- The ability to sustain increased exports despite insecurity will shape energy markets and potentially influence military responses.
Background
The Strait of Hormuz, connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, has been a flashpoint since the US-Israel war on Iran began in late February. Iran retaliated by effectively closing the strait to US-allied shipping, while the US imposed a blockade on Iranian ports. Before the conflict, the waterway handled about 20 percent of global crude and LNG shipments. The recent data from Kpler indicates a partial recovery in flows, but the security environment has not improved.
Key Perspectives
Gulf oil exporters (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, etc.): These states aim to maintain export revenues and global market share. They are bearing the risks of renewed attacks but appear willing to resume shipments as long as insurance and military protection can be arranged.
Iran: Through the IRGC and allied forces, Iran retains the ability to harass or strike vessels. Its actions may be aimed at pressuring adversaries while signaling that it still controls access through the strait, possibly seeking concessions.
Shipping companies and insurers: They face sharply higher war risk premiums, crew safety concerns, and potential liability. The surge in attacks may force them to reroute or suspend operations through the strait, undermining the export recovery.
Consumers and governments: Soaring fuel prices are a political liability. The article notes that former President Trump blamed Democrats and Ukraine for US fuel prices rather than the Iran war, indicating the issue is highly charged.
What to Watch
- Frequency of attacks: whether the daily pace of incidents increases or decreases in the coming weeks.
- Insurance rates for tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz, which will influence shipping viability.
- Any official statements from Iran regarding a “toll” system or safe passage guarantees, as suggested in related articles.
- US and allied naval responses, including potential escorts or strikes on IRGC naval assets.
- Oil price movements and global supply data from Kpler and other trackers for October.