Annual US wildfire structure losses could nearly triple by mid-century

Research by Earth Lab director Virginia Iglesias and colleagues at the University of Colorado Boulder was published this month. In a 2024 study, Iglesias and colleagues used satellite imagery to measure daily fire growth across the contiguous United States from 2001 to 2020.

The study found that a brief burst of growth, often fueled by strong winds or highly flammable materials, can matter enormously even if a fire's eventual size remains relatively small. The researchers modeled future risk by incorporating weather, climate and housing-density expectations.

About one-third of western neighborhoods facing the highest future risk are low-income communities, where residents may find it harder to afford protective measures, maintain insurance and recover financially, the researchers note.

The study says multiple factors contribute to rising fire risk. A century of fire suppression has allowed dry vegetation to accumulate in forests that historically burned frequently. Rising temperatures caused by human activities have increased the drying of soils and vegetation. More people now live in and at the edges of wildland areas, adding ignition sources and buildings that can burn.

The 2026 wildfire season illustrated these dangers. Colorado's Aspen Acres Fire destroyed hundreds of structures in June, and in August fires swept into Spokane neighborhoods, damaging more than 800 homes. The U.S. spent 48 consecutive days at Preparedness Level 5, the highest level, indicating firefighting resources were stretched nationally, compared with a 10-year average of 25 days.

The study emphasizes that risk can be reduced with relatively modest investments. Class A fire-resistant roofs, ember-resistant vents and clearing flammable debris from around buildings can help. In a study of new home construction, the researchers found that meeting the two protection levels established by the Colorado fire code increased minimum construction costs by approximately 0.6 percent and 4.2 percent.

Beyond individual homes, the researchers recommend prescribed burns, forest thinning, utility infrastructure upgrades and insurance incentives that reward measurable risk reduction. They say strategies must be tailored to each community's environmental, social and economic realities.