Sydney unit rents at record high, with further rises possible

Median asking rent holds at $780 a week, but tax changes and rate rises could tighten the market again

By LineZotpaper
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Sydney unit rents have reached a record high, with the median asking rent at $780 a week in the September quarter, and experts warning that changes to property taxes and further interest rate rises could push prices higher again.

Sydney unit rents have reached a record high, with the median asking rent at $780 a week in the September quarter, according to Domain’s latest Rent Report, released on Thursday.

The median held steady over the quarter but was up 4 per cent, or $30 a week, over the year. House rents edged lower, falling 0.6 per cent over the quarter to a median of $835 a week, though they were still up 5.7 per cent, or $45, over the year.

Sydney’s rental vacancy rate rose slightly over the quarter to 1.2 per cent, remaining well below the 3 per cent rate that generally indicates a balance of power between landlords and tenants.

Domain’s chief of research and economics, Dr Nicola Powell, said the price and vacancy data showed renters were “reaching the limits” of what they could pay.

“A low vacancy rate, like the one we have in Sydney, usually translates into rapid rent increases, but that’s just not happening right now. It tells us a lot about affordability ceilings being reached,” she said.

Powell said it was plausible that the May budget’s changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax would prompt investors to exit the market, reducing rental stock and causing asking rents to rise. “The data is not showing that effect yet, but this is the first full quarter since the budget,” she said, citing the tax changes as well as interest rate rises and the expectation of another hike before the end of the year as pressure points on investors.

The steepest rise in unit rents over the quarter was in the inner south-west, up 2.9 per cent to $700 a week. For houses, the only rise was in the south-west, up 2.6 per cent to $780 a week.

Leo Patterson Ross, chief executive of the Tenants’ Union of NSW, said the flat quarter was welcome but doubted it would continue, noting the September quarter is traditionally the quietest in Sydney because of lower student turnover.

“These results could partly reflect that, rather than a meaningful moderation in prices,” he said. Patterson Ross said many tenants contacting his organisation were approaching “breaking point” after two years of rent increases that outpaced wage growth.

“They’re compromising in various ways, whether that’s a smaller place than they’d want, a place further away from where they want to be, or a place in poorer condition,” he said.

Sydney renter Julian Robinson, a 28-year-old disability support worker, said he and a friend were inundated with applications when they advertised for a third flatmate at a converted church in Dulwich Hill. Robinson said he received 150 messages almost immediately, including from many international applicants.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • Sydney renters are paying record prices for units, and after two years of increases that outpaced wages, tenant advocates say many can no longer keep up.
  • A low vacancy rate means landlords hold the advantage, and any further loss of investor-owned rental stock could push rents up again.
  • The flat September quarter may reflect seasonal quiet rather than a genuine easing, so the relief for tenants could be short-lived.

Background

Sydney has long had one of the tightest and most expensive rental markets in Australia, with demand running well ahead of supply. The May federal budget changed how property investors are taxed, including negative gearing and capital gains tax arrangements, and interest rate rises have added to the cost of holding investment properties. Domain’s September quarter report is the first full set of data since those budget changes, which means their effect on investor behaviour is only now starting to show.

Key Perspectives

Domain: Chief of research and economics Dr Nicola Powell sees renters hitting an affordability ceiling. She says the usual relationship between low vacancy and rapid rent growth has stalled, but warns the budget’s tax changes and expected rate rises could push investors out of the market and drive asking rents higher. Tenants’ Union of NSW: CEO Leo Patterson Ross welcomes the flat quarter but treats it cautiously, noting the September period is seasonally quiet. He says tenants are at breaking point and are accepting smaller, more distant or poorer-condition homes to stay housed. Critics and skeptics: The main challenge to the affordability-ceiling reading is that the flat result may be seasonal, not structural. If that is the case, rents could resume rising once student turnover returns in the summer months.

What to Watch

  • Whether asking rents resume climbing once the quieter September quarter passes, and whether the vacancy rate holds near 1.2 per cent.
  • Any further interest rate moves before the end of the year, which Powell says investors are already expecting.
  • Signs of investors selling or exiting the market in response to the budget’s tax changes, which would tighten supply and put upward pressure on rents.

Sources

Zotpaper

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