Texas Latinos turning on Trump, but not necessarily embracing Democrats, Texas Tribune reports

Cost of living, mass deportation backlash drive swing in key Senate battleground

By LineZotpaper

Published22 October 2026

Read Time3 min

In a pivotal shift ahead of the 2026 election, Latino voters in Texas are moving away from President Donald Trump, driven by frustration over the economy and the administration's mass deportation campaign, according to a report from the Texas Tribune. But strategists and voters interviewed by the Tribune caution that the swing does not represent a wholesale return to the Democratic Party, leaving the outcome of the state's tossup Senate race uncertain.

Latino voters in Texas, who in 2024 split their votes nearly evenly between Democrat Kamala Harris and President Trump, are showing signs of swinging back toward Democrats this cycle. The Texas Tribune spoke with over two dozen Latino strategists, organizers, candidates and voters across the state and found that affordability concerns and anger over Trump's mass deportation efforts are the main drivers.

Carlos Cancino, a Latino small-business owner in the Rio Grande Valley, told the Tribune he was a Trump supporter in previous elections but now plans to vote for Democrats. “Now I can’t stand the guy. I can’t stand the Republican Party,” Cancino said. He cited high prices and the state of the economy as his reasons.

Mario Guerrero, a three-time Trump voter who will also vote Democratic this year, said Latinos in South Texas feel deceived by the president. “We’re tired of this shit. We’re not your puppets, and that’s what they have us as right now,” Guerrero told the Tribune.

However, strategists warn that disaffection with Republicans does not automatically translate into Democratic support. “The conversations we’ve had at the doors with voters have very much implied that disillusionment with Republicans doesn’t translate into automatic Democratic support,” said Ricardo Rauseo, national press secretary for Somos Votantes PAC, which is active in majority-Latino U.S. House districts in Texas. “Instead, they’re looking for candidates that are authentic and that are actively presenting and communicating a vision for the economy.”

Chuck Rocha, a Democratic strategist working on several campaigns in Texas, described the shift as a rebuke of the party in power rather than an embrace of Democrats. “They’re swinging back because Democrats are reminding them who broke it,” Rocha said.

The Texas Tribune reported that the GOP faces significant headwinds among Latinos that were not present two years ago. High costs remain a frustration, particularly gas prices after Trump’s decision to attack Iran, which disrupted Middle Eastern oil flows. While the border has quieted, a spate of violent incidents involving Immigration and Customs Enforcement, including the shooting of a Latino man in Houston, has sparked allegations of anti-Hispanic racial profiling. In South Texas, ICE enforcement has also disrupted the construction sector, a key part of the local economy.

A CBS News poll from October found that 34% of Texas Latinos approved of Trump’s job performance, 11 percentage points below his overall standing in the state.

The shift could decide the state’s U.S. Senate race between Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee, and State Representative James Talarico, the Democrat, as well as several congressional districts redrawn by the Republican-controlled legislature to favor the GOP in majority-Hispanic South Texas.

At a Democratic get-out-the-vote rally in Donna in early October, local candidates and congressional hopeful Bobby Pulido, a Tejano music star, drew cheers from a mostly Latino crowd when they discussed their campaigns and boos when Trump or Governor Greg Abbott were mentioned. Organizers urged higher turnout, noting that many Hispanic-majority areas have historically low voting rates.

Analysis

Why This Matters

The Texas Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico is considered a tossup, and Latino voters could determine the outcome, potentially shifting the balance of power in Washington.
The trend reflects a broader national pattern: Latino voters, once considered a reliable Democratic bloc, are increasingly volatile and could remain a swing population for years.
How Texas Latinos vote will test whether Republicans’ 2024 gains were durable or a one-time response to specific conditions, and whether Democrats can rebuild their coalition.

Background

Texas has seen rapid demographic change, with Hispanics now the largest ethnic group in the state. In 2024, Trump made historic gains among Latino voters, particularly in South Texas, winning all but two border counties and flipping Cameron and Hidalgo counties for the first time in decades. Republicans then redrew several congressional districts in the region to try to lock in those gains. The 2026 election is the first major test of whether those shifts are permanent or reversible.

Key Perspectives

Democratic strategists and organizers: They see a real opportunity driven by economic discontent and backlash against Trump’s immigration policies, but they acknowledge that many Latino voters remain skeptical of the Democratic brand and must be won over with authentic, local messaging focused on the economy. Latino voters: Many express deep frustration with both parties. Former Trump supporters cite high prices, gas costs and aggressive ICE enforcement as reasons for abandoning the president, but they do not automatically trust Democrats. They are looking for candidates who offer a clear economic vision and who listen to their concerns. Republican strategists (implicitly, through the article’s reporting): The GOP made significant gains in 2024 and still holds a strong position among some Latino voters, but faces new obstacles including anger over deportations and economic pain from foreign policy decisions. The party’s ability to retain its 2024 margins is uncertain.

What to Watch

Turnout levels in heavily Latino precincts in Houston, San Antonio, Dallas and El Paso, where Democrats believe higher enthusiasm could gain ground.
Early voting patterns in South Texas counties like Hidalgo and Cameron, which swung to Trump in 2024 but may revert.
Further polling on Latino job approval of Trump and the generic congressional ballot.
The impact of any high-profile ICE incidents between now and Election Day.

Sources

Texas Latinos are turning on Trump. That doesn’t mean they’re sold on Democrats. · Texas Tribune

Checked

12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 9 supported.

Show each claim

SupportedTexas Latinos are turning on Trump but are not necessarily embracing Democrats.Texas Tribune: “Texas Latinos are turning on Trump. That doesn’t mean they’re sold on Democrats.”
SupportedCost-of-living concerns and backlash to mass deportation are driving a swing in the Texas Senate battleground.Texas Tribune: “affordability concerns and anger over the administration’s mass deportation campaign are fueling an expected swing back toward Democrats.”
Partly supportedLatino voters in Texas are moving away from Trump because of frustration with the economy and the administration’s mass deportation campaign.Texas Tribune: “affordability concerns and anger over the administration’s mass deportation campaign are fueling an expected swing back toward Democrats.”
SupportedThe Latino shift could affect the outcome of Texas’s tossup Senate race.Texas Tribune: “The size of that swing, and where it shows up on the map, could decide whether Texas sends Ken Paxton or James Talarico to the U.S. Senate.”
Partly supportedIn 2024, Texas Latino voters split their votes nearly evenly between Kamala Harris and Trump.Texas Tribune: “In 2024, exit polls and precinct analyses estimate that Texas’ Latino vote split close to evenly between Democrat Kamala Harris and Trump.”
SupportedThe Tribune spoke with more than two dozen Latino strategists, organizers, candidates and voters in Texas.Texas Tribune: “But in interviews with over two dozen Latino strategists, organizers, candidates and voters in Texas, a common thread emerged:”
SupportedCancino said, “Now I can’t stand the guy. I can’t stand the Republican Party.”Texas Tribune: ““Now I can’t stand the guy,” Cancino said. “I can’t stand the Republican Party.””
SupportedGuerrero said, “We’re tired of this shit. We’re not your puppets, and that’s what they have us as right now.”Texas Tribune: ““We’re tired of this shit. We’re not your puppets, and that’s what they have us as right now.””
SupportedRauseo said disillusionment with Republicans does not mean automatic Democratic support, and voters seek authentic candidates with an economic vision.Texas Tribune: ““The conversations we’ve had at the doors with voters have very much implied that disillusionment with Republicans doesn’t translate into automatic Democratic support,” said Ricardo Rauseo, the national press secretary for Somos Votantes PAC, which is on the ground in several majority-Latino U.S. House districts in Texas. “Instead, they’re looking for candidates that are authentic and that are actively presenting and communicating a vision for the economy.””
SupportedRocha said, “They’re swinging back because Democrats are reminding them who broke it.”Texas Tribune: ““They’re swinging back because Democrats are reminding them who broke it.””
SupportedAn October CBS News poll found 34% of Texas Latinos approved of Trump’s job performance, 11 percentage points below his overall standing in the state.Texas Tribune: “Latino Texans, 34% of whom said they approved of his job performance in an October CBS News poll. That was 11 percentage points below his overall standing in the state.”
Partly supportedICE enforcement disrupted the construction sector, described in the story as a key part of the local economy.Texas Tribune: “In South Texas, ICE enforcement has also disrupted the local economy, especially the construction sector, a source of frustration in a growing region.”