Victoria goes to the polls on November 28 in what Premier Ben Carroll calls the most important election in a generation. Polls point to a Labor defeat after 12 years in power, while the rise of One Nation, polling only two percentage points behind Labor, has changed the electoral landscape. Opposition Leader Jess Wilson says the election offers Victoria a chance for a 'fresh start', while One Nation leader Warren Pickering promises to 'shake the established order to its core'.
The Coalition needs to gain 16 seats to reach the 45 required for a majority. According to election analyst Antony Green, the Liberal Party is well placed to reclaim its eastern-suburbs heartland, while Jim Reed says there is a stronger mood for change in Labor's western suburbs.
Polling analyst Jim Reed says voters in Melbourne's west feel Labor have taken them for granted and are considering switching to either the Liberals or One Nation. A senior Liberal figure, speaking anonymously, says the premier's own seat of Niddrie is 'absolutely up for grabs' and that Labor is obviously nervous.
One Nation leader Warren Pickering hopes Pakenham will take him to parliament, where Labor won by just 307 votes in 2022, making it a three-way contest. Samaras says the Liberal candidate could win if the Liberal vote reaches parity with One Nation, as she will get Labor voters' preferences.
In Northcote, held by Labor on a 0.2 per cent margin, Green says the Liberals' how-to-vote cards could decide whether the Greens pick up the seat. Reed says Prahran, a Liberal-versus-Greens contest, could return to the Greens; the direction of Labor's preferences could be decisive.
Regional seats are also in play. Samaras calls Morwell 'ground zero' for One Nation, saying its older population, post-industrial character, declining industries and historic job losses favour the party. Ripon, held by Labor on a slim margin, could fall to either the Liberals or One Nation, Green says.
Shepparton, a safe Nationals seat, is a target for One Nation; Reed says the retiring member, a slim margin and the electorate's willingness to vote independent make it harder for the Coalition to hold on. Samaras says there is more financial pain further south along the Frankston line.
Labor's once-safe seat of Yan Yean highlights grievances over infrastructure. Samaras points to the congestion and poor public transport in the outer north and west, contrasting with Labor's rail spending in the east.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The Victorian election could end a decade of Labor dominance, reshaping the state's political landscape.
- The rise of One Nation as a third force may fragment the traditional two-party system, affecting policy on issues from infrastructure to immigration.
- The outcome will test whether Labor's progressive agenda still resonates with working-class voters in outer suburbs and regions.
Background
Victoria has been under Labor for 12 years, with Ben Carroll as Premier. The election on 28 November will be held amid a strong challenge from the Liberal-National Coalition and One Nation, led by Warren Pickering. One Nation is building on its success in Queensland and its presence in Victoria's upper house.
Key Perspectives
Premier Ben Carroll: describes the election as the most important in a generation, warning that a change of government would be a risk to Victoria's future.
Opposition Leader Jess Wilson: says Victoria needs a 'fresh start', arguing that 12 years of Labor has left the state with debt and service failures.
One Nation leader Warren Pickering: promises to shake the established order and is personally contesting the seat of Pakenham, hoping to enter parliament.
Polling analyst Jim Reed: sees a strong mood for change in Western suburbs, with Labor voters considering switching to the Liberals or One Nation.
Election analyst Antony Green: predicts the Liberal Party will easily win back its eastern suburban seats, while One Nation's best chance for a lower house seat is in Morwell.
What to Watch
- The direction of Liberal how-to-vote cards in seats like Northcote, which could determine whether the Greens gain seats.
- The performance of One Nation in key targets: Morwell and Ripon and whether the party's softening support can hold.
- Whether the Liberal Party can net 16 gains, especially in three-way contests where preferences may deliver unpredictable results.