Timor-Leste President José Ramos-Horta has declared that his country will sign the first agreements for the long-stalled Greater Sunrise gas project early next year, as the South-East Asian nation pushes ahead with a hugely ambitious and contentious development.
Ramos-Horta told the ABC in Sydney that Greater Sunrise was now "finally happening" after "years and years of procrastination [and] deadlock". "I was told by Prime Minister Xanana [Gusmao] that he's confident that within the next few months they will sign the agreement, [that] we will finalise the three main documents," he said.
The three documents will help Australia, Timor-Leste and the Australian energy company Woodside Energy establish the regulatory and fiscal settings needed for exploration and development. Timor-Leste's government previously said that technical agreement had been reached on a Petroleum Mining Code, Production Sharing Contract and fiscal regime.
But widespread scepticism persists. Analysts, government and industry sources caution that there is no guarantee Timor-Leste and Woodside will strike a commercial agreement on a development plan, and any final investment decision is likely years away. Woodside and Timor-Leste said last year that first LNG could be produced "as early as 2032-2035, subject to concept selection and investment decisions". Last month, Timor's petroleum minister pushed the production start date back to 2034-2035, saying the country hoped for a final investment decision by 2029.
Ramos-Horta struck a bullish tone, saying: "We cannot wait much longer. We have to do it now. Now is the time, is the opportunity."
Timor-Leste says the project will generate badly needed jobs and economic activity, but the venture has been beset with delays, disagreements and doubts. An airport built in anticipation of the gas project opened almost a decade ago but has hardly been used.