Farmers have been one of Donald Trump's most reliable voting blocs, but a growing number say they are abandoning him, and some may not vote at all in the November 3 midterm elections, putting Republican control of Congress further at risk.
Scott Thomsen, a 39-year-old fourth-generation farmer in Kennard, Nebraska, voted for Trump three times. He says he will not do so again. "I think there is a large demographic of people my age that are conservative that voted for Trump that are really unhappy with how it went," he said.
Mr Thomsen, who farms corn, alfalfa, soybean and cattle calf, said he expected a bumper year but has watched diesel and fertiliser prices surge by 40 per cent, with some equipment now costing three times what it once did.
"He did close the border [with Mexico], which he doesn't get enough credit for. But everything else, this war with Iran, has inflated prices and created more costs for us," he said.
The conflict has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, choking a global shipping route for fuel and other supplies farmers rely on. Mr Thomsen said he cannot bring himself to vote Democrat but is so let down by the president's party that he will probably stay home.
That is the dilemma facing Republicans. The party appears likely to lose control of the House of Representatives, and its 53-47 Senate majority is under pressure in once safe states. In Nebraska, where Trump won by more than 20 percentage points in 2024, Republican Senator Pete Ricketts is in a surprisingly competitive race.
Trump has responded with a campaign blitz through normally safe territory, including Texas, Alabama, Oklahoma, Alaska and Nebraska, where he pledged to expand access to tax-exempt diesel fuel in a nod to the costs farmers and truckers face.
"It's going to come down to which party can get their base out to the polls," said Bryan McQuide, professor of political science at Grand View University. "The race is a lot closer than it normally would be and that's one big signal that something's up."
Nearly seven in 10 rural voters backed Trump in the 2024 election, according to the Pew Research Center. Dr McQuide said rural America was now facing a difficult conundrum.