UK borrowing costs hit 19-year high as global bond selloff intensifies ahead of budget

Yield on 10-year gilts reaches 5.515%, erasing half of Labour's fiscal headroom and piling pressure on Chancellor John Healey

By LineZotpaper
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Medium-term borrowing costs for the UK government hit a fresh 19-year high on Thursday, with the yield on 10-year gilts jumping to 5.515 percent, as a global bond selloff driven by rising inflation and Middle East tensions erodes the Treasury's fiscal buffer ahead of the 28 October budget.

The yield on 10-year UK government bonds rose 0.06 percentage points by lunchtime in London to 5.515 percent, the highest level since July 2007 as the global financial crisis was unfolding. Yields on 20- and 30-year gilts also rose significantly, reaching levels not seen since 1998.

The move is part of a broader selloff in government bonds across major economies, intensified by surging oil prices and the unresolved Middle East conflict. France has been hardest hit as Paris struggles to pass its budget, but the selloff has been widespread.

Economists believe rising borrowing costs and a weaker growth outlook have wiped out around half of the 24 billion pound buffer against Labour's fiscal rules that Healey's predecessor, Rachel Reeves, built up at the time of her spring statement in March, and perhaps significantly more.

Healey is expected to raise taxes at the budget to partly rebuild that cushion, as well as to fund policy interventions including a six-month VAT cut on electricity bills and a modest energy support package for the poorest households.

However, some economists are warning the chancellor not to go too far. Andrew Wishart of Berenberg Bank said: "Raising taxes to keep the surplus close to the size it was in the March forecast (ie to 'maintain the headroom') would do unnecessary damage to economic incentives." He argued that gilt yields are likely to come back down over the next year, with the Bank of England likely to make fewer rate rises than the four that investors currently expect.

The Bank is widely expected to raise interest rates at its November meeting to tackle surging inflation, echoing moves already made by the European Central Bank, Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan. Investors appear anxious about higher inflation and runaway government spending. Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, has urged governments to tighten their belts in response to rising bond yields.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • Rising borrowing costs directly affect the UK government's ability to spend on public services, infrastructure and social support without increasing taxes or debt.
  • The erosion of Labour's fiscal headroom constrains Chancellor Healey's policy options ahead of his first budget, potentially forcing deeper tax rises or spending cuts than planned.
  • The global nature of the bond selloff, linked to oil prices and Middle East tensions, means the UK has limited control over the pressures it faces.

Background

The UK government borrows by issuing bonds known as gilts. When bond prices fall, yields (the effective interest rate) rise, making future borrowing more expensive. Former Chancellor Rachel Reeves built a 24 billion pound buffer against Labour's self-imposed fiscal rules in her March spring statement. Since then, a global selloff in government bonds has been driven by rising inflation expectations, higher oil prices and concerns about government spending levels. The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates in November to combat inflation.

Key Perspectives

Chancellor John Healey: Faces pressure to deliver a budget on 28 October that maintains fiscal credibility while funding energy support and other interventions. Expected to raise taxes to partially restore the eroded headroom.

Andrew Wishart, Berenberg Bank: Warns against overtightening, arguing that raising taxes simply to maintain the surplus as forecast in March would needlessly damage economic incentives, and that gilt yields may fall back over the next year.

IMF and international investors: Anxious about higher inflation and runaway government spending. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has urged governments to tighten belts globally.

What to Watch

  • The size of the tax increases and spending measures in Healey's 28 October budget.
  • The Bank of England's interest rate decision in November and its forward guidance.
  • Oil price movements and any resolution (or escalation) of the Middle East conflict, which could further pressure bond markets.

Sources

Zotpaper

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