Winter in the United States looks likely to be wetter and warmer, but not necessarily snowier, according to the federal government's seasonal outlook and other meteorologists' forecasts. The driving force is El Niño, the natural but temporary warming in parts of the Pacific, which generally heats the globe and tends to shift weather patterns in predictable regional ways, especially when strong.
NOAA said on Thursday that the pattern should help erase persistent western drought, but it is unlikely to satisfy northern snow enthusiasts. "This is going to be a winter that's really difficult for them to find what they're looking for," said James Belanger, vice-president of meteorology for the Weather Company.
While the weather service does not make seasonal snowfall predictions, its meteorologists said much of the northern parts of the country should expect below-normal snowfall. Southern parts may receive more than usual. The National Weather Service's director, Ken Graham, noted that snowstorms remain possible even in a warmer winter. "Listen, even in the winter months, it doesn't mean you're not going to have snow. It doesn't mean you might not have a snowstorm," he said in a media briefing. "So it doesn't erase the risk."
Private firm AccuWeather forecasts that Salt Lake City is the only big metro area likely to see above-normal winter snow. Chicago, Boston, New York and Philadelphia are forecast to get about half or less of their normal amounts, the firm said.
All this is on top of a US winter that has warmed about 4F (2.2C) over the past 50 years, predominantly from the human-caused climate crisis, according to NOAA.
Some or all of 41 of the lower 48 states are forecast to be warmer than normal. No states or parts of states are forecast to be cooler than average. Florida, Louisiana, southern Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi are forecast to be near normal. There is an equal chance of warm, cold or normal in Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, southern California, Nevada, Wyoming, western Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska.
The dreaded polar vortex with its icy blast of Arctic air escaping into the United States should not occur as much as most winters, but it could still happen, said National Weather Service meteorologist and branch chief Jon Gottschalck. "It only takes one storm to flip the script, especially for the east coast cities," said AccuWeather forecasters.