US and Israel draw up plans for potential strikes on Iran, report says

The New York Times reported on Thursday that Washington and Tel Aviv have developed updated military options for a potential attack on Iran, with a timeline aimed at after the US midterm elections. The report, cited by Spanish newspaper El País, comes as both countries ramp up military drills in the region to practice airstrikes.

Separately, the US State Department has ordered nonessential staff and family members at the US embassy in Saudi Arabia to leave the country, citing the prospect of possible new attacks by Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Houthis, who are aligned with Iran, have previously targeted Saudi and Emirati territory with drones and missiles.

The developments also unfold as Israel prepares for its own election, in which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking re-election. The political calendar in both countries is likely to influence the timing and scope of any military action.

Analysis

Why This Matters

The plans signal a potential escalation in US-Israel pressure on Iran, which has been at odds with Western powers over its nuclear program and regional proxy activities.
Evacuation of embassy staff from Saudi Arabia suggests US intelligence assesses a high risk of retaliatory or spillover attacks.
The timing of any operation would be shaped by domestic political cycles in both the US and Israel, linking foreign policy to electoral considerations.

Background

Tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran have fluctuated for decades, revolving around Iran's nuclear ambitions, its support for proxy groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis, and the 2015 nuclear deal that the US withdrew from in 2018. Renewed diplomacy under the Biden administration stalled, while Israel has repeatedly threatened to use military force to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The reported planning suggests the option remains on the table.

Key Perspectives

United States: The administration has publicly favored diplomacy but may be preparing coercive options in case negotiations fail or Iran's nuclear progress crosses thresholds. Israel: Israel views an Iranian nuclear weapon as an existential threat and has periodically pushed for a harder US line, including potential military action. Iran and its allies: Tehran has warned that any attack would be met with retaliation across the region, including by Houthi forces capable of striking Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

What to Watch

Outcome of the US midterm elections: a shift in congressional control could affect the administration's appetite for military action.
Israel's election result and whether it strengthens Netanyahu's coalition, which has historically favored a more aggressive posture.
Iran's nuclear progress: any IAEA reports of enrichment breakthroughs could hasten a decision to strike.
Houthi attacks: a major incident in Saudi Arabia could act as a trigger for escalation.

Checked

10 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 5 supported.

Show each claim

SupportedThe US and Israel have drawn up plans for potential strikes on Iran after the US midterm elections, according to a report.El País English: “Washington and Israel have devised new plans to strike Iran again after the U.S. midterm elections , The New York Times reports”
SupportedThe New York Times report cites senior US officials and other sources.El País English: “The New York Times reports, citing senior U.S. officials and other sources.”
SupportedThe plans have a timeline aimed at after the US midterm elections.El País English: “Washington and Israel have devised new plans to strike Iran again after the U.S. midterm elections”
Partly supportedThe US and Israeli militaries are conducting intensified joint exercises rehearsing bombing missions.El País English: “the armed forces of both countries have stepped up military maneuvers in the region to rehearse bombing missions”
SupportedThe State Department ordered nonessential embassy staff and their families to evacuate Saudi Arabia amid the prospect of possible new Houthi attacks in Yemen.El País English: “the State Department has ordered nonessential embassy staff and their families to evacuate Saudi Arabia amid the prospect of possible new attacks by Houthi rebels in Yemen”
Not in the sourcesThe New York Times reported the plans on Thursday.El País English
Not in the sourcesThe Houthis are aligned with Iran.El País English
Not in the sourcesThe Houthis have previously targeted Saudi and Emirati territory with drones and missiles.El País English
SupportedIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking re-election.El País English: “Israel prepares for an election in which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is fighting for re-election.”
Not in the sourcesThe political calendar in both countries is likely to influence the timing and scope of any military action.El País English