US midterm results may help Israeli opposition unite against Netanyahu

Opposition politician Yair Lapid said incoming Democratic lawmakers were mainly against Netanyahu, and that anything connected to him was toxic to them. He proposed a transatlantic charm offensive by officials of a prospective new government to rebuild trust in the US. New York congressman-elect Brad Lander, a Democrat and self-described liberal Zionist, swiftly rebuked the idea. “You’re not listening to what American voters – Jewish and non-Jewish – are saying,” Lander wrote in a direct response. “We aren’t starving for a barnstorming tour. We’re hungry to see respect for international law and human rights.”

Israel held its own parliamentary election less than two weeks ago, which left neither government nor opposition with a clear majority. The opposition won 67 of the 120 Knesset seats, but more than a quarter went to Palestinian citizens of Israel, and some Jewish Israeli parties have ruled out sitting with them. The president is now deciding whether Netanyahu or Eisenkot will get the first chance to form a coalition.

Eisenkot said on social media that under his leadership Israel would "renew and deepen that partnership, strengthen the bipartisan foundations that have long sustained it." Lapid said Israel should return to the rule that worked for 70 years and "broke in 2015 when Netanyahu went to speak against [US president] Obama in Congress", that of not choosing sides in America.

The US relationship was a campaign issue across America, with many Democratic candidates sharply critical of Israel's actions in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, and the costs of the joint US-Israeli war on Iran a key voter concern. US President Donald Trump blamed the Iran War for the Republican rout. Vice-President JD Vance cited the US relationship with Israel as one of four reasons voters deserted the party, saying voters wanted change in US policy toward Israel.

Trump also said during a Fox News interview that he would stop $3.8 billion in US military aid to Israel two years earlier than planned, a pledge that caused shock in Israel. Israel’s president called it “a bolt from the blue.” Israeli officials were still trying to understand whether Trump was serious two days later. Netanyahu’s office responded days afterward, describing the shift from aid to partnership as showing “the strength and sophistication” of the bilateral relationship.

Israeli political and security analyst Yaakov Katz said the midterms could translate into tougher demands on Israel over Gaza and Lebanon and a requirement not to undermine an agreement with Iran. "Our entire Air Force is American-made military planes, we're dependent on American spare parts and American weapons," he said, noting that the last three years showed how dependent Israel is on American missile-defence systems. "[If] those don't show up at the same pace, that's a real difference – that changes your calculation of what you're able to withstand if you go to war."

A US official familiar with the situation said the relationship would shift to being willing to criticise Israel when warranted, but that the "bedrock fundamental relationship" would remain. Israel's ambassador to the UN, Danny Danon, said Israel could "feel good" about the US veto in the UN Security Council but warned: "We have to pay attention to the voices – not only in the Democratic Party but also the Republican Party – criticising Israel. It will be harder for us."

Lander and two other incoming Jewish members of Congress wrote to Israel’s ambassador calling for the immediate release of Abed Abu Shehada, a Palestinian citizen of Israel and journalist who was reportedly taken from his home by masked security officials in a night-time raid without an arrest warrant. Interrogators have only questioned him about a podcast interview with a public figure, his lawyers said. Lander said detaining a reporter for conducting an interview was a violation of international law and came as senior Israeli officials tried to “delegitimize the participation of Palestinian citizens in Israel’s recent elections.”

Ben Caspit, writing in the Israeli daily Ma'ariv, said: "One thing is clear: we are losing America. This isn't a process; it isn't happening in stages; it is happening all at once. It is an avalanche."

Nadav Tamir, a former senior Israeli diplomat in the US, wrote in the Times of Israel that the new Congress might be less willing to define support for Israel as automatic alignment with every policy of its government. "Perhaps this will be the paradox of the new Congress," he wrote. "It will be less willing to define support for Israel as automatic alignment with every policy of its government, but precisely for that reason, it may offer Israel more meaningful support in breaking out of the cycle of wars and building a future of security and prosperity."