Witnesses in Jilib, a city of about 100,000 people inside territory held by the Islamist militant group al-Shabaab, described near-daily airstrikes as floodwater rose around their homes. Cayni Ali, a mother of six whose home stands five metres from the River Juba, said the strikes had left residents with nowhere to go. "The drones come all the time," she said. "We hear them constantly. They kill animals, civilians. The town is big but destruction is everywhere."
Asho Omar, from the village of Malenda near Jilib, described "constant" airstrikes that had forced people towards the river's banks. "The airstrikes are everywhere; it is difficult to move. So many people have been killed," she said.
A source monitoring the Juba floodplain in southern Somalia accused the offensive of exploiting El Niño. "The airstrikes are forcing people to go close to the river. It's an extremely aggressive offensive, exploiting El Niño as a weapon of war to push the population into flood-prone areas," the source said. "The official line is that they are targeting military positions and al-Shabaab, but because al-Shabaab is embedded within the community, it's difficult to avoid collateral damage."
Jethro Norman, a senior researcher with the Danish Institute for International Studies, called the alleged approach "a reversal of process," saying it would use humanitarian remote sensing to inflict casualties rather than to mitigate harm.
Africom denied the allegations. "Africom does not target civilians, conduct operations for the purpose of displacing civilian populations or use weather or flooding as a method of warfare," a spokesperson said. "Africom targets lawful military objectives and takes feasible measures to mitigate civilian harm." The command has not provided operational security details of the campaign or details of potential civilian fatalities, citing the need to protect US and partner forces and preserve operational security.
Residents described a heavy civilian toll. Farhan Ahmed, who fled Jilib last month, said there were "airstrikes every day, all the time," and that one strike flattened five homes in his neighbourhood. Fadumo Abdi said the attacks "are mostly killing civilians. Some were buried, but some were not." Yusuf Siidi, 27, from Araare near Jamame, said he witnessed three teenagers killed in one strike. The US admits a drone strike near Jamame on 19 March but has not released other data.
The flood threat is building. The 2023 El Niño caused the worst floods Somalia had seen in a century and displaced more than 1.2 million people. Halimo Abdikadir, from Kamsuuma, described how the waters came quickly at night during that flooding and destroyed her home, with many animals drowned. Arbey Famu, 70, from Ahmed Yare, said her maize and sorghum crops are already underwater and that she expects this El Niño to be far worse than 2023. "In Jilib, there is big flooding already," she said.
Ali Adan Ali, commissioner for displaced people in Jubaland, said he had identified 327 flood-prone regions but by October warnings had reached only half. His main concern is a lack of boats: without them, thousands in al-Shabaab territory risk being trapped on the east side of the river, unable to reach Kismayo. He recalled that during the 2023 El Niño, 19,000 people were stranded for a week without food. "We are running out of time," he said.
Somalia's capacity to respond has dwindled. The Guardian reports that the country's aid budget, which stood at $2.2bn in 2023, now stands at about $300,000, and flood protection investment has declined. In Jilib, Cayni Ali said no sandbags or flood defences had been deployed, and earth walls along the river have proved insufficient. The latest flood advisory for the River Juba urges communities to "reinforce" weak riverbanks. UN agencies say the Juba River basin is of "particular concern," and the International Committee of the Red Cross foresees "severe flooding."