US mortgage rates hit three-year high of 7.49 percent, weighing on voters before midterms

By LineZotpaper
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Mortgage rates in the United States have climbed to their highest level in nearly three years, reaching 7.49 percent for a 30-year fixed-rate loan, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly report released Wednesday. The jump comes as cost-of-living concerns dominate voter sentiment less than a month before the congressional midterm elections.

The average cost for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 19 basis points to 7.49 percent for the week ending October 2, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported. Applications for mortgages fell 4.2 percent from the previous week, hitting their lowest level since February 2025 and dropping by nearly half since the start of the year.

"Very few homeowners have an incentive to refinance at these rates, and the jump in borrowing costs has caused many potential borrowers to step back from the purchase market," said Joel Kan, vice president and deputy chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, in a press release.

Mortgage rates are closely tied to US 10-year Treasury notes, which earlier this week hit a 24-year high of 5.3 percent amid surging oil prices linked to ongoing tensions with Iran. The yield on 30-year Treasury bonds rose to its highest level since 2002, reaching 5.7 percent on Wednesday.

Rates have jumped since late February, when the US and Israel first struck Iran, climbing 1.4 percent since then. Inflation, which has risen 3.4 percent from a year ago, is also adding pressure.

The rising costs come as voters head toward the congressional midterm elections that could decide the balance of power in Washington. According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll in late August, 47 percent of voters said the cost of living was the single most important issue. A separate Reuters/Ipsos poll in September found that only 17 percent of voters approved of President Donald Trump's handling of cost-of-living issues.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • The surge in mortgage rates directly affects affordability for home buyers and homeowners, potentially cooling the housing market and reducing household spending.
  • With cost of living the top issue for nearly half of voters, rising mortgage costs could sway outcomes in the midterm elections, shifting the balance of power in Congress.
  • The tie to Treasury yields and geopolitical tensions with Iran shows how global events are feeding into domestic economic pressures for American households.

Background

Mortgage rates in the US are closely linked to yields on government bonds, which have risen sharply in recent months. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years in September 2026, as inflation remained elevated. Oil prices have surged amid US and Israeli military strikes on Iran that began in late February. The combination of higher borrowing costs and persistent inflation has eroded consumer confidence and purchasing power.

Key Perspectives

Home buyers and homeowners: Face significantly higher monthly payments, fewer refinancing options, and reduced purchasing power in a market that was already stretched. Mortgage Bankers Association: Sees a sharp pullback in demand as borrowers step away, with little incentive to refinance at current rates. Policymakers and voters: Cost of living is the dominant election issue; rising mortgage rates add to economic anxiety and could drive voter anger toward the incumbent administration.

What to Watch

  • Whether the Federal Reserve signals further rate hikes at its next meeting, given persistent inflation and rising bond yields.
  • Election outcomes in November and whether housing costs become a decisive issue for swing voters.
  • Further movements in Treasury yields, which could push mortgage rates even higher if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate.

Sources

Zotpaper

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