President Donald Trump has lost an important European ally in Serbia, while Brazil's victory for incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leaves in power a president Trump does not feel warmly toward.
Serbia's parliamentary election on October 25 saw the defeat of outgoing president Aleksandar Vucic, a Trump ally who had ruled since 2017 and resigned just before the vote to stand as prime minister. The Student List, a left-wing party, won the election. In Brazil, incumbent president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva defeated Trump-backed candidate Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Flavio Bolsonaro has refused to concede defeat, claiming irregularities, and fled to Florida after losing the election. The US State Department granted him and his family entry visas despite pending legal action in Brazil for alleged corruption and money laundering.
Lawrence J. Haas, a senior fellow for US foreign policy at the American Foreign Policy Council and former communications director for Al Gore, said Trump was a strong supporter of both Jair Bolsonaro and his son Flavio, adding that he wasn't happy about the defeat of either. Relations with Lula, Haas said, will remain cool at best.
Trump said of the Brazilian election on Monday: "It looked like another rigged election, frankly. Elections have to be indisputable – and it looked very bad to me."
Vucic had commented in the past that he and Trump are like-minded people. Trump's elder son Donald Jr. visited Vucic in Belgrade shortly before the 2024 US presidential election and again a few months later. The US Conservative Political Action Conference, closely connected with Trump's MAGA movement, had announced a meeting in Belgrade in November at which Vucic was to be a keynote speaker. Vucic had a much more positive attitude toward Russian president Vladimir Putin than most other European heads of state, and Trump also seemed increasingly inclined toward Moscow. Vucic had not joined EU countries in imposing sanctions on Russia after it launched its war against Ukraine.
In Israel, elections remain inconclusive. With more than 96% of votes counted, prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing bloc is in the lead, but Netanyahu has lost his majority, making coalition negotiations difficult.
Haas said Americans will vote based on issues affecting them and how they feel about the party in power. He noted that Trump has the lowest approval rating of any president on the eve of a midterm election since Harry Truman in 1946, with Americans very concerned about affordability and strongly opposed to the US-Iran war.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The loss of allies in Serbia and Brazil reduces Trump's network of international partners who share his political and strategic outlook.
- Vucic's defeat removes a key European leader who resisted EU sanctions on Russia, potentially shifting the regional balance.
- The developments come as Trump faces low approval ratings and a difficult midterm election on Tuesday, although analysts say foreign results will not sway US voters.
Background
President Donald Trump's Republican party currently holds majorities in both chambers of the US Congress. The US midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026. Serbia's Aleksandar Vucic ruled as president from 2017 before resigning to run for prime minister. In Brazil, Flavio Bolsonaro is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, whom Lula defeated in 2022.
Key Perspectives
Lawrence J. Haas (senior fellow, American Foreign Policy Council): said Trump was a strong supporter of both Jair Bolsonaro and Flavio Bolsonaro, that Trump wasn't happy about the defeat of either, and that relations with Lula will remain cool at best. He added that the foreign results won't influence the US midterms because Americans vote on issues affecting them.
Donald Trump: said the Brazilian election "looked like another rigged election, frankly" and that "it looked very bad to me."
Haas on Trump's domestic standing: said Trump has the lowest approval rating of any president on the eve of a midterm since Harry Truman in 1946, and that Americans are very concerned about affordability and strongly oppose the US-Iran war.
What to Watch
- Whether CPAC's planned Belgrade meeting in November featuring Vucic proceeds as scheduled.
- The outcome of coalition negotiations in Israel, where Netanyahu has lost his majority.
- The results of the US midterm elections on November 3 and their impact on Trump's political position.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 12 supported.
Show each claim
- SupportedThe headline says Trump lost allies as elections in Serbia and Brazil favoured left-wing parties.DW English: “The majority of voters in both Serbia and Brazil cast their ballots for left-wing parties. Those results will not influence the midterms in the US, but the victories of the Student List in Serbia and the incumbent president, Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva, in Brazil are bad news for Trump all the same.”
- SupportedHaas said the defeats would not influence the imminent US midterms but were bad news for Trump.DW English: “Those results will not influence the midterms in the US, but the victories of the Student List in Serbia and the incumbent president, Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva, in Brazil are bad news for Trump all the same.”
- SupportedTrump lost an important European ally in Serbia: outgoing president Aleksandar Vucic.DW English: “In Serbia, he has lost an important European ally in outgoing president Aleksandar Vucic.”
- SupportedLula's victory leaves in power a president Trump does not feel warmly toward.DW English: “Trump wasn't happy about the defeat of either Bolsonaro," he continues, "and he doesn't feel warmly toward Lula. So relations will remain cool at best.”
- SupportedVucic was defeated in Serbia's parliamentary election on October 25.DW English: “Trump ally and former president Aleksandar Vucic was defeated in Serbia's parliamentary election on October 25”
- SupportedVucic resigned just before the vote to stand as prime minister.DW English: “He resigned just before these elections in order to stand as prime minister”
- SupportedThe Student List, described as left-wing, won the Serbian election.DW English: “The majority of voters in both Serbia and Brazil cast their ballots for left-wing parties. Those results will not influence the midterms in the US, but the victories of the Student List in Serbia”
- SupportedLula defeated Trump-backed candidate Flavio Bolsonaro in Brazil.DW English: “the victories of ... the incumbent president, Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva, in Brazil”
- SupportedFlavio Bolsonaro refused to concede defeat and claimed there were irregularities in the vote.DW English: “Bolsonaro has refused to concede defeat. Instead, he claims there were irregularities in the vote.”
- SupportedFlavio Bolsonaro fled to Florida after losing the election.DW English: “After losing the election, he fled the country for Florida.”
- SupportedThe State Department granted Flavio Bolsonaro and his family entry visas despite pending legal action in Brazil related to alleged corruption and money laundering.DW English: “Flavio Bolsonaro is under investigation in Brazil for alleged corruption and money laundering. ... The US State Department granted him and his family entry visas in spite of the pending legal action.”
- SupportedTrump said on Monday: “It looked like another rigged election, frankly. Elections have to be indisputable – and it looked very bad to me.”DW English: “"It looked like another rigged election, frankly," the US president said on Monday. "Elections have to be indisputable – and it looked very bad to me."”