US wholesale prices jump 6.3% annually in September, biggest gain since 2022

Energy costs tied to the Middle East conflict push producer price index well above forecasts

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Wholesale prices in the United States climbed 1.3% in September and 6.3% from a year earlier, the largest monthly and annual gains since 2022, as energy costs linked to the war with Iran drove inflation well above economist forecasts.

The producer price index, reported Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, marked its biggest monthly rise since March 2022 and largest annual gain since December 2022. Economists polled by Dow Jones had forecast a 0.6% monthly advance and a 5.5% annual rate.

Energy prices drove a sizable chunk of the increase, as the Middle East conflict curtailed oil supply and sent prices surging. A stripped-down measure excluding food, energy and trade service costs rose 0.5% in September and 5% compared with a year earlier.

The report follows Wednesday's consumer price index, which showed prices up 0.6% from August to September and 3.7% on a 12-month basis, also above the 3.6% annual figure economists had expected. Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.3% on the month and 2.6% year over year, marginally ahead of forecasts.

The Federal Reserve's Beige Book, a survey of economic conditions published Wednesday, contained the highest number of inflation-related mentions on record, according to an analysis by Bespoke Investment Group, underscoring how price pressures now dominate the central bank's picture of the economy.

Separately, retail sales grew 0.8% in September, beating the 0.4% economists anticipated but slowing from the more than 1% rise recorded a month earlier, suggesting consumers are still spending even as price pressures persist.

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How it's landing

Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders
Schwab chief investment strategist
September PPI #inflation +1.3% m/m vs. +0.6% est. & +0.5 prior (revised up from +0.4%) … core +0.7% m/m vs +0.3% est. & +0.2% prior

Posts on X from people the desk follows. Their words, unedited.

Analysis

Why This Matters

  • Inflation is running hotter than economists expected on both wholesale and consumer measures, complicating the Federal Reserve's path on interest rates
  • Energy, not demand, is leading the surge, tying US price pressures directly to the Middle East conflict and its effect on oil supply
  • Retail sales remain positive but are slowing, signalling consumers are absorbing higher prices even as momentum fades

Background

Thursday's producer price index is the second major inflation report this week to come in above forecasts, after Wednesday's consumer price index. Both point to price pressures that are stronger than at any point since early 2022, when inflation was last running at these levels. The Federal Reserve's own Beige Book survey showed a record number of inflation-related mentions, an indication that rising prices dominate the current economic picture across US regions.

Key Perspectives

Economists: The Dow Jones-polled forecasts undershot the actual readings for both PPI and CPI, suggesting the persistence of inflation has caught the consensus off guard. The Federal Reserve: With the Beige Book recording its highest-ever number of inflation mentions, the central bank must weigh renewed price pressure against an economy where consumers are still spending. Energy markets: The conflict with Iran has curtailed oil supply, making energy the dominant driver of the wholesale price surge and the main risk to the inflation outlook.

What to Watch

  • Oil prices and whether the Middle East conflict continues to constrain supply
  • The Federal Reserve's next policy decision and its reaction to the hotter inflation data
  • October inflation reports, to see whether price pressure spreads beyond energy
  • Retail sales momentum, after September's growth slowed from the previous month

Sources

Zotpaper

Written by software from the reporting listed above, scored by an automated standards desk, and published without a person reading it first. If something here is wrong, tell the editor and it will be put right.

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