Victoria heads to unpredictable election as One Nation surge reshapes race

The election comes with Labor's primary vote more than 10 percentage points lower than its 2022 result, according to opinion polls. The premier, in office for less than three months, is leading a government that has shed support after more than a decade in power.

The Coalition, led by Jess Wilson, has struggled to convert its poll lead into a clear majority, requiring 16 additional seats across Victoria to form government. But the rise of One Nation, following the party's strong showing in South Australia in March, could deprive the opposition of the numbers it needs.

In South Australia, One Nation outpolled the Liberals statewide, won four lower house seats and became Labor's primary opponent in more than two dozen electorates. In Victoria, analysts say the party could threaten Labor in working-class outer-suburban seats and complicate Coalition ambitions.

The electorate now appears split almost evenly four ways between Labor, the Coalition, One Nation and other parties, including the Greens in Melbourne and independents across the state, making a hung parliament a real possibility.

Analysis

Why This Matters

The election will test whether the two-party system that has dominated Australian politics since World War II is in terminal decline, with One Nation and others fragmenting the vote.
The outcome will shape Victorian government for the next four years, affecting services and policy in Australia's second-most-populous state.
A hung parliament or minority government is a real possibility, which would force cross-party negotiations and could lead to policy instability.

Background

Australian politics has been characterised by a two-party system since World War II, with Labor and the Coalition alternating in power. Victoria's Labor government has been in office for 12 years and is seeking a fourth term, but support has slipped. The rise of One Nation, led by Pauline Hanson, has added a new dimension. In March, One Nation surprised observers in South Australia, outpolling the Liberals and winning four lower house seats, signalling that the party could have similar impact in Victoria.

Key Perspectives

Labor: The government hopes a new premier and a focus on its record will allow it to overcome the historical odds against a fourth term, despite sliding primary votes. The Coalition: The opposition, led by Jess Wilson, is ahead in the polls and argues it is time for a change, but it needs a significant number of additional seats and faces the risk of One Nation splitting the conservative vote. One Nation: The party is seeking to build on its South Australian success, targeting working-class electorates and potentially holding the balance of power. The Greens and independents: In Melbourne and across the state, these candidates could further fragment the vote and complicate majority government for either major party.

What to Watch

Opinion polls in the final weeks, particularly Labor's primary vote, which is more than 10 points below its 2022 result.
Whether One Nation can translate its national profile into seats in Victoria, as it did in South Australia.
The performance of the Coalition in the 16 additional seats it needs, and whether the new Liberal leader can avoid losing ground to One Nation.
The possibility of a hung parliament and the role of crossbench MPs in forming the next government.

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