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Vox surge puts Spanish hard right on brink of government ahead of November election

Polls suggest a PP-Vox alliance would win 198 seats, enough to unseat Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez

By LineZotpaper
Published
Read Time3 min
Spain votes on November 29 with the far-right Vox party surging in the polls, raising the prospect that a conservative coalition could return the hard right to national power for the first time since the death of Francisco Franco in 1975. A survey by El Pais projects the People's Party and Vox would win 198 seats, enough to oust Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and end one of the last left-wing governments in Europe.

Eight years ago Vox was a tiny party on the fringes of Spanish politics. Polls now put it close to power as Spain heads to snap elections on November 29, called amid a housing crisis.

According to a survey by the newspaper El Pais, the conservative People's Party (PP) and Vox would secure 198 seats in parliament, above the 176 needed for a majority. Vox's support is predicted to double from the last elections in 2023. Sanchez's Socialist Party is forecast to win 112 seats, down from 121.

In 2023 the PP won the most votes but not enough to lead on its own, and it declined to enter a coalition with Vox. Sanchez instead formed a government with the help of the Catalan nationalist party, Together for Catalonia. Since then the PP has formed four regional governments with Vox, and the parties share power in about 100 councils. A national coalition would return the hard right to power for the first time since the death of Francisco Franco in 1975.

"There is hope for Spain with these elections. We will fight for victory and to convince Spaniards we are worth voting for," said Jose Antonio Fuster, national spokesman for Vox. "But the PP cannot make the same mistakes as 2023 and must not start dividing up ministries until we have won."

The party is drawing support from younger voters. Alberto Munoz, a 24-year-old computer programmer from Barcelona, said: "What I really hate about Sanchez is how keen he is to allow more migrants into our country."

Steven Forti, an expert on the far right at the Autonomous University of Barcelona, said Vox distances itself from the Franco dictatorship, like other far-right parties in Europe and Latin America. Vox leader Santiago Abascal once told parliament that Sanchez's government was the "worst for the past 80 years", a remark Forti called "dog whistle politics".

"Young people are attracted to Vox by a feeling of rebellion against the established parties, nationhood and antimigrant feeling," Forti said.

If the Socialists lose, it would spell the end of one of the last left-wing governments in Europe, after advances for the far right in France, Germany, Italy, Austria and Finland.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • A PP-Vox coalition would make Spain the latest European country to put the far right in national government, after advances in France, Germany, Italy, Austria and Finland.
  • It would end one of the last left-wing governments in Europe and remove Pedro Sanchez from office.
  • For Spain it would be historic: the first hard-right national government since the death of Francisco Franco in 1975, with Vox's support predicted to double from the 2023 election.

Background

Vox was founded in 2013 and spent its early years on the political fringe before entering parliament in 2019. The party combines Spanish nationalism with anti-immigration politics and strong opposition to Catalan separatism. Analysts say it follows other far-right European parties in formally distancing itself from the Franco dictatorship while drawing on nationalist sentiment and implicit nostalgia for that era.

Spain's party system has fragmented into coalition politics in recent years, which has pushed the PP into regional alliances with Vox. The snap election was called against the backdrop of a housing crisis that has become a live issue in the campaign.

Key Perspectives

Vox: Portrays the election as a chance for change and casts itself as a rebellion against the established parties. Its spokesman says the party will fight for victory and has warned the PP not to repeat its 2023 decision to avoid a coalition.

The People's Party: The PP already governs with Vox in four regions and about 100 councils. Nationally it needs Vox to reach the 176 seats required for a majority, and must choose whether to formalise an alliance it has previously avoided.

Critics and analysts: Scholars describe Abascal's remark that the current government is the worst in 80 years as dog whistle politics, an implicit comparison with the Franco era without explicit endorsement. A Socialist defeat would leave Europe with fewer left-wing governments as populism sweeps the continent.

What to Watch

  • Whether the polling gap holds: the El Pais survey projects 198 seats for the PP-Vox bloc, but the campaign still has weeks to run.
  • The PP's post-election decision on a coalition, a choice it declined in 2023.
  • How the housing crisis influences voters in the final weeks, particularly younger voters who appear drawn to Vox.
  • Whether Sanchez can mobilise the left to close the projected gap.

Sources

Zotpaper

Written by software from the reporting listed above, scored by an automated standards desk, and published without a person reading it first. If something here is wrong, tell the editor and it will be put right.

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