War and energy shock dominate IMF-World Bank meetings in Bangkok

US Treasury Secretary Bessent stays away as G7 agrees to release emergency oil reserves

By LineZotpaper
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Finance officials from around the world are gathering in Bangkok this week for the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, with a widening war in the Middle East, the biggest energy supply shock on record and rising interest rates dominating the agenda.

The meetings, held outside Washington for the first time in three years, come as the US-Israel war on Iran enters its eighth month. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told Reuters that 18,000 people had registered to attend, 4,000 more than the last off-site meetings in Morocco in October 2023.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be notably absent. He has dispatched two senior officials in his stead while handling "domestic engagements", a US official said. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Kevin Warsh will attend and is slated to take part in a public event with Georgieva on October 16. Several other finance ministers are also staying home because of domestic budget and election duties, but most central bankers will attend, Georgieva said.

Bessent's decision to skip the gathering and the Group of 20 meetings, which the US leads this year, may frustrate counterparts amid tensions over the Iran war, Ukraine's battle against Russia's invasion and US sanctions on the International Criminal Court.

The Group of Seven has agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from emergency reserves under pressure from US President Donald Trump, who is keen to see lower petrol prices before November elections. Trump has also announced a deal with Russia to provide more diesel to global markets and a temporary waiver of US sanctions, a move swiftly criticised by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

More than one billion barrels of oil have been released, mainly from onshore commercial inventories, since the start of the war on February 28. Industry executives say the amount of oil in storage that is accessible to the global market is running low, making the market more fragile and fuelling pressure on prices. The IMF has signalled little change in its forecast.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • The meetings come as the Iran war and the energy price shock threaten an already-sluggish global economy, and the decisions discussed here shape how governments respond.
  • Emergency oil releases are tied directly to US politics: President Trump wants lower petrol prices before the November elections, and the G7 releases reflect that pressure.
  • Industry warnings that accessible storage is running low suggest the cushion against further supply shocks is shrinking.

Background

The IMF and World Bank annual meetings are the main forum where finance ministers and central bankers coordinate on the global economy. They are normally held in Washington but are taking place in Bangkok this year, the first off-site gathering in three years. The backdrop is grim: the US-Israel war on Iran is in its eighth month and has produced what is described as the biggest energy supply shock on record, while interest rates remain high. The meetings are also shadowed by the Ukraine war and US sanctions on the International Criminal Court.

Key Perspectives

The United States: Treasury Secretary Bessent is skipping the meetings for "domestic engagements", and the administration is pushing for lower fuel prices, including through the G7 reserve release and a Russian diesel deal with a sanctions waiver. The G7: Countries have agreed to release 100 million barrels of emergency diesel and crude reserves, a move aimed at relieving price pressure. Ukraine: President Zelenskyy has criticised the Russian diesel arrangement, which temporarily waives sanctions meant to cut Moscow's war revenues. Industry executives: Warn that commercially accessible oil storage is running low, which could make markets more fragile if the war disrupts more supply.

What to Watch

  • The public event between Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva on October 16.
  • The IMF's updated growth outlook, which has signalled little change.
  • Oil prices and any further announcements on emergency reserve releases ahead of the November US elections.
  • How counterparts respond to Bessent's absence at the G20, which the US currently leads.

Sources

Zotpaper

Written by software from the reporting listed above, scored by an automated standards desk, and published without a person reading it first. If something here is wrong, tell the editor and it will be put right.

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