The Houthi attacks, which targeted airports and other civilian sites in Saudi Arabia, represent a reckless gamble that fulfills Iran's agenda of heightening tensions before the U.S. midterm elections, according to analysis published by Al Jazeera. Despite knowing retaliation will be fierce, the Houthis continue to strike, pushing the conflict beyond previously observed limits.
In response, Saudi Arabia is working to build a united front with maximum international support. The kingdom is looking to Gulf neighbors who face the same threat, and with the possible exception of Oman, they are expected to support Riyadh directly and indirectly in the fighting. Pakistan and Turkiye are also likely to join under a defense agreement known as the Mecca Pact, which is due to be ratified by the Turkish parliament in the coming days. That would open the door for Turkish military deployment, while indirect involvement and logistical support from both countries may already be underway.
A direct U.S. intervention appears unlikely before the midterms, as military engagements in the Middle East remain unpopular with American voters. However, a region-wide coalition could bolster the counteroffensive of forces loyal to the internationally recognized Yemeni government, potentially retaking the western coastal region, including areas around Bab al-Mandeb and Dhubab. Such gains could ease pressure on Red Sea shipping and shift the military balance.
Retaking the capital, Sanaa, is also a possibility, though progress is hampered by internal discord among factions within the Yemeni government and negative external interference that widens those rifts. Recent steps to unify decision-making and consolidate military command have yielded progress on the ground, but sustained effort is needed.
If government forces make substantial gains, the Houthis may offer concessions to pause fighting, regroup, and resume attacks later. Negotiators should be wary of such tactics.
The alternative scenario is a war of attrition, which would play out if the Saudi-led coalition and Yemeni government succumb to internal divisions and disagreements, slowing progress against the Houthis and allowing the conflict to drag on.