Research · Evaluation & benchmarks
Language models’ own confidence becomes harder to outperform as they improve
Predictable performance is suboptimal, and what it means for model routing
Zhang and Hardt connect prediction gains beyond a model’s own confidence to its room for improvement, then test the relationship across 16 language models.
MMLU-Pro: 0.65 Pearson correlation between empirical suboptimality and (as reported)