A new study from CSIRO and the University of Melbourne has found that the reliability of long-range El Niño forecasts depends heavily on the ocean's starting state. By analysing over 7,500 historical forecasts, researchers discovered that predictions initiated during La Niña conditions consistently perform well even a year ahead, while those begun from neutral conditions are far less reliable. The finding could improve early warning systems for the destructive weather phenomenon, which the UN calls a 'wrecking ball' of extreme heat, drought and flooding.
organisation
CSIRO
Australian national science agency