Scientists identify new clue to predict El Niño up to a year in advance

Study finds forecasts begun during La Niña conditions are more reliable, offering hope for earlier warnings

By LineZotpaper

Published23 October 2026

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A new study from CSIRO and the University of Melbourne has found that the reliability of long-range El Niño forecasts depends heavily on the ocean's starting state. By analysing over 7,500 historical forecasts, researchers discovered that predictions initiated during La Niña conditions consistently perform well even a year ahead, while those begun from neutral conditions are far less reliable. The finding could improve early warning systems for the destructive weather phenomenon, which the UN calls a 'wrecking ball' of extreme heat, drought and flooding.

Researchers from CSIRO, Australia's national science agency, and the University of Melbourne have identified conditions that could make it possible to predict some El Niño and La Niña events up to a year in advance. Published in the journal Science Advances, the study examined more than 7,500 historical ENSO forecasts from climate models developed in nine countries.

"We've known for some time that the starting conditions affect how well model forecasts perform, but our study really shows how drastic those differences in performance can be," said lead author Dr Nandini Ramesh, a senior research scientist at CSIRO. "The exciting thing about our results is that we can use that information. We can identify which forecasts deserve greater confidence and potentially warn the public about El Niño events much earlier."

Co-author Dr Mandy Freund from the University of Melbourne said the findings provide a new way to assess confidence in long-range climate forecasts. Dr Ramesh noted the team is still "a few steps away" from applying the findings to operational models used by forecasting agencies but added that "these results hold promise for being able to communicate early warnings for future events."

The research comes as the current El Niño intensifies. This week, World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned that this year's event "could be unprecedented in strength," with far-reaching consequences for weather patterns worldwide. UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Tom Fletcher described El Niño as a "wrecking ball" of extreme heat, drought and flooding, predicting "massive humanitarian consequences."

While El Niño cannot be stopped, earlier forecasts could give countries more time to prepare. Davide Faranda, research director at France's National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS), said governments can manage water more carefully, adjust farming schedules, and help communities prepare for floods or droughts. He also emphasized that tackling climate change could limit future damage, as rising global temperatures compound El Niño's impacts.

Analysis

Why This Matters

Earlier predictions of El Niño and La Niña could give vulnerable communities months more to prepare for extreme weather events, potentially saving lives and reducing economic losses.
The UN has warned that the current El Niño could be unprecedented in strength, compounding the effects of climate change and threatening food and water security in regions like Central America's Dry Corridor.
If forecasting agencies incorporate these findings, long-range climate warnings could become more reliable and targeted, improving disaster readiness worldwide.

Background

El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climate pattern that typically shifts every two to seven years. El Niño brings warmer sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, altering global weather patterns and often driving extreme heat, drought and flooding. Forecasts of ENSO events are usually considered reliable only about six months in advance; extending that window has been a long-standing scientific challenge.

Key Perspectives

Researchers: Lead author Dr Nandini Ramesh and co-author Dr Mandy Freund are optimistic but cautious. They have shown that forecasts begun during La Niña conditions retain skill at a 12-month lead time, but say practical application is still a few steps away. WMO and UN officials: Secretary-General Celeste Saulo called the current El Niño potentially unprecedented, while Tom Fletcher described it as a "wrecking ball" with massive humanitarian consequences. They stress the urgency of better early warnings. Climate scientist Davide Faranda: He emphasizes that even perfect forecasts cannot stop El Niño, but better preparation can reduce harm. He also highlights that climate change amplifies El Niño's impact, making emissions reduction a parallel priority.

What to Watch

Whether the study's findings are picked up by operational forecasting agencies such as the WMO or national meteorological services in the coming years.
The strength and duration of the current El Niño event, which is still intensifying and may drive extreme weather into 2027.
Any improvements in early-warning communication for the next ENSO event, which could occur as early as 2028 or 2029.

Sources

A year ahead of the ‘wrecking ball’: Scientists find new clue to predict when El Niño will strike · Euronews

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12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 11 supported.

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Partly supportedScientists have identified a clue to predict El Niño up to a year in advance.Euronews: “scientists found that knowing whether the Pacific is in an El Niño, La Niña or neutral state when a forecast is started can provide valuable clues about how reliable a forecast is likely to be 12 months later.”
SupportedForecasts begun during La Niña conditions perform well a year ahead, while those begun during neutral conditions are less reliable.Euronews: “forecasts initiated during La Niña conditions consistently performed well even when predicting ENSO events a year ahead, while forecasts beginning from neutral conditions were far less reliable.”
SupportedThe study analysed more than 7,500 historical ENSO forecasts from climate models developed in nine countries.Euronews: “after analysing more than 7,500 historical ENSO forecasts from climate models developed in nine countries”
SupportedThe finding could improve early warnings for El Niño.Euronews: “The breakthrough could help improve how early warnings are communicated.”
SupportedRamesh said the study shows how drastic differences in forecast performance can be.Euronews: ““We’ve known for some time that the starting conditions affect how well model forecasts perform, but our study really shows how drastic those differences in performance can be,” explains Lead author Dr Nandini Ramesh.”
SupportedRamesh said the findings could help identify forecasts deserving greater confidence and potentially warn the public about El Niño earlier.Euronews: ““The exciting thing about our results is that we can use that information. We can identify which forecasts deserve greater confidence and potentially warn the public about El Niño events much earlier.””
SupportedThe current El Niño is intensifying, and Saulo said it could be unprecedented in strength.Euronews: ““The current El Niño event could be unprecedented in strength,” Celeste Saulo, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), told reporters in Geneva earlier this week.”
SupportedFletcher described El Niño as a “wrecking ball” of extreme heat, drought and flooding and warned of “massive humanitarian consequences.”Euronews: “Tom Fletcher, the UN’s under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs, described El Niño as a “wrecking ball” of extreme heat, drought and flooding, warning it would bring “massive humanitarian consequences”.”
SupportedRamesh said the team is still a few steps away from applying the findings to forecasting-agency models, but the results hold promise for early warnings.Euronews: “Dr Ramesh, a senior research scientist at CSIRO, says the team is still a “few steps away” from applying the findings to the models used by forecasting agencies. “But these results hold promise for being able to communicate early warnings for future events,” she adds.”
SupportedFreund said the findings provide a new way to assess confidence in long-range climate forecasts.Euronews: “Co-author Dr Mandy Freund from the University of Melbourne and researcher with the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather, says that the findings provide a new way to assess confidence in long-range climate forecasts.”
SupportedFaranda said governments can manage water, adjust farming schedules and help communities prepare for floods or droughts.Euronews: “governments can store and distribute water more carefully, better control how reservoirs and underground water are used, adjust farming schedules and irrigation practices, and prepare communities for droughts or floods.”
SupportedTackling climate change could limit future damage because El Niño’s impacts are compounded by rising global temperatures.Euronews: “El Niño’s impacts are therefore compounded by an already warming world.”