Polls, Models and Markets Converge on ‘Blue Tsunami’ Forecast for Midterms
Nate Silver model gives Democrats 95% House, 80% Senate; Times/Siena polls show leads in all seven battlegrounds
A broad consensus of polls, election models and betting markets is pointing to a Democratic victory in Tuesday’s U.S. midterm elections. Nate Silver’s election model gives Democrats a 95% probability of winning the House and an 80% probability of winning the Senate, while the final New York Times/Siena polls show Democrats leading in every Senate battleground state surveyed, including by 11 points in Michigan and seven in Texas. President Donald Trump carried six of those seven states in 2024.