An analysis of 2022 polling booth results by The Age has pointed to trends shaping Victoria's November 28 state election, including warning signs for Labor in its northern heartland, One Nation's early rise and potential weakness for the Liberals in blue-ribbon seats, as polls suggest Labor will be banished to the opposition benches and replaced by a government led by Jess Wilson.
Since the 2022 contest, in which Labor was returned in a "Danslide", the party has been knocked off course by scandal after scandal, its approval rating has plummeted, and three premiers have led the state. The Age examined results from every polling booth in 2022 across schools, community halls and sporting clubs to investigate what they might mean for the result on November 28.
In Labor's northern heartland, the party suffered large two-party preferred swings to the Liberals in Thomastown (11.2 per cent), Mill Park (13.5 per cent), Broadmeadows (14.8 per cent) and Greenvale (13.3 per cent). At the Bethal Primary School booth in Greenvale, Labor's Iwan Walters, who ultimately won the seat, suffered a 33.2 per cent swing against him, benefiting the Liberals as well as conservative independent Fatma Erciyas, Family First Victoria and the Victorian Socialists. Greenvale is being targeted in 2026 by Liberal candidate Jim Overend, who has served on Hume City Council for the past six years and ran a small business.
One Nation was a barely visible political force in 2022, winning just 0.22 per cent of the statewide primary vote, but pulled 6.1 per cent in the seat of Morwell, about 150 kilometres east of Melbourne. At the Traralgon South Community Hall, near the closed Hazelwood coal-fired power station, 8.4 per cent of voters backed the party. Morwell is one of the most disadvantaged electorates in the state, while the suburb of Morwell recorded an 11 per cent unemployment rate at the 2021 census. The Age's latest Resolve Political Monitor has One Nation polling a 23 per cent primary vote in Victoria, potentially giving it a significant presence in both the lower and upper house; Casey Murphy is the party's Morwell candidate.
In blue-ribbon seats, no teal independents were elected in 2022 but several dented major party support and are running again. In Kew, Jess Wilson won the seat but the Liberal Party's primary vote dropped by 5 per cent. At the Canterbury Girls Secondary College booth, Wilson's 44.6 per cent primary vote was down 7 per cent on her party's 2018 performance, as teal candidate Sophie Torney pulled in 25 per cent, ahead of Labor and the Greens. Torney, who has since served as Boroondara mayor, is again challenging Wilson, this time with triple the financial backing compared with the $115,000 she raised in 2022.
In Melbourne's west, the Liberals gained significant ground in 2022 and Melton, Werribee and Sydenham are considered in play for conservative parties this time around. In Sydenham, Labor's primary vote dropped 17.5 percentage points, almost triple the statewide swing of 5.8 per cent. At the Sydenham-Hillside Primary School booth, voters moved to options including Family First and the Victorian Socialists. Veteran MP Natalie Hutchins is not recontesting the seat, and concerns over data centres in the electorate are a further headache for Labor.
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Two-party-preferred swing to the Liberal Party in Labor's northern-suburbs seats, 2022 Victorian election
percentage points
Source: The Age analysis of 2022 Victorian election results
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Analysis
Why This Matters
The November 28 election will decide whether Labor retains government after four years in which its approval rating has plummeted and three premiers have led the state.
Booth-level trends from 2022 indicate where this campaign's swings may land, including Labor's northern and western heartlands.
A strong One Nation result, with the party polling a 23 per cent primary vote in Victoria, could reshape the balance of both houses of parliament.
Background
Victoria has been governed by Labor since its re-election in 2022 under Daniel Andrews, a result dubbed the "Danslide". In the years since, the party has faced successive scandals, falling approval and three changes of premier, with Jess Wilson leading the Liberal opposition. Polls tip a Wilson-led government after the November 28 election.
Key Perspectives
Jess Wilson (Liberal leader): tipped by polls to lead the next Victorian government, but facing a renewed teal challenge in her own seat of Kew from Sophie Torney.
Sophie Torney: the teal candidate is running again in Kew with triple the financial backing of her 2022 campaign, when she out-polled Labor and the Greens at a key booth.
One Nation: is polling a 23 per cent primary vote in Victoria, strongest in regional and rural electorates and among older, non-university educated voters, and is running Casey Murphy in Morwell.
Jim Overend: the Liberal candidate in Greenvale is targeting the seat after large swings against Labor in 2022.
What to Watch
Whether the November 28 result bears out polls tipping a Wilson-led government and Labor's move to the opposition benches.
Whether One Nation's 23 per cent primary vote translates into seats in the lower and upper houses.
Whether teal candidates can convert strong 2022 booth results into wins in blue-ribbon seats such as Kew.
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 11 supported.
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SupportedThe 2022 booth results show warning signs for Labor in its heartland as the Victorian election approaches.The Age - Latest News: “the results in 2022 hinted at the trends now shaping the upcoming state election campaign: the warning signs for Labor in its heartland”
Partly supportedPolls suggest a Wilson-led government will be in place on November 28.The Age - Latest News: “Polls suggest the party will be banished to the opposition benches – and replaced by a government led by Wilson.”
SupportedThe 2022 polling-booth analysis identifies trends relevant to the November 28 state election.The Age - Latest News: “Across schools, community halls and sporting clubs, The Age has analysed the results from every polling booth in 2022 to investigate what they might mean for the results on November 28.”
SupportedLabor was returned in a “Danslide” in 2022.The Age - Latest News: “At the last state election, Labor was returned to power in a thumping “Danslide””
SupportedThree premiers have led Victoria since the 2022 election.The Age - Latest News: “In the four years since, Labor has been knocked off course by scandal after scandal, its approval rating has plummeted, and three premiers have led the state.”
SupportedLabor’s two-party-preferred swing in Thomastown was 11.2 per cent to the Liberals.The Age - Latest News: “the party suffered large two-party preferred swings to the Liberals in Thomastown (11.2 per cent)”
SupportedAt the Bethal Primary School booth, Iwan Walters had a 33.2 per cent swing against him.The Age - Latest News: “At the Bethal Primary School booth in Greenvale, Labor’s Iwan Walters – who ultimately won the seat – suffered a whopping 33.2 per cent swing against him.”
SupportedOne Nation won 0.22 per cent of the statewide primary vote in 2022.The Age - Latest News: “One Nation was a barely visible political force in 2022, winning just 0.22 per cent of the statewide primary vote.”
SupportedOne Nation received 6.1 per cent of the vote in Morwell in 2022.The Age - Latest News: “in the seat of Morwell, about 150 kilometres east of Melbourne, the party pulled 6.1 per cent of the vote”
SupportedOne Nation received 8.4 per cent of the vote at Traralgon South Community Hall.The Age - Latest News: “At the Traralgon South Community Hall, 8.4 per cent of voters gave their vote to One Nation.”
SupportedThe Age’s latest Resolve Political Monitor has One Nation on a 23 per cent primary vote in Victoria.The Age - Latest News: “The Age’s latest Resolve Political Monitor has the party polling with a primary vote of 23 per cent in Victoria”
SupportedLabor’s primary vote in Sydenham fell 17.5 percentage points, nearly triple the statewide swing of 5.8 per cent.The Age - Latest News: “In Sydenham, Labor suffered a massive 17.5-percentage point drop in its 2022 primary vote, almost triple the statewide swing of 5.8 per cent.”