One Nation has promised to create an online real-time expenditure tracker if elected in Victoria, but its Victorian leader Warren Pickering said Monday the party would not release policy costings before auditing the government’s finances and would not engage with the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) until it had an opportunity to do so.
Pickering criticised the financial records of the major parties and questioned the accuracy of the PBO, which is responsible for independently costing policy proposals. The PBO, established in 2018, provides all MPs with independent expertise and is staffed by economists and researchers.
"We know there's some great people at the PBO, but the reality is, when has one of their cost projections been accurate in the last decade?" Pickering said. He said the party would not engage with the PBO until it had "an opportunity to blow the books open ourselves and revolutionise the way that that budgets are done in this state."
One Nation's refusal follows scrutiny from the PBO over what it found to be a massive underestimate of the cost of a group of the party's family policies. Deputy leader Colleen Harkin initially said the policies would cost $136 million over four years, but the PBO independently costed the plan at $688.7 million at the request of the Liberal Party. Harkin later said the estimate was per year, which would still leave a $144.7 million shortfall.
Parliamentary Budget Officer Xavier Rimmer encouraged all parties to use the PBO's service. "While there are alternatives to the PBO's election costing service, only the PBO's service combines expertise and independence, with comparability across parties," Rimmer said.
Labor Minister Anthony Carbines said the refusal was a sign the party was not responsible enough to govern. “People who can’t put forward any costings at all for their policy positions aren’t people we take very seriously,” he said.
Pickering said the party would not make costings public because it first wanted to conduct an audit of the government’s finances. “We believe that the books are sufficiently cooked to warrant a full investigation,” he said.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- Voters in Victoria face an election with significant concerns about debt, and One Nation's refusal to release costings limits their ability to assess the party's fiscal plans.
- The dispute highlights tensions between minor parties and the Parliamentary Budget Office, an independent umpire meant to ensure transparency across parties.
- The outcome may set a precedent for how minor parties engage with fiscal transparency mechanisms in future elections.
Background
The Parliamentary Budget Office was established in 2018 to provide all Victorian MPs with independent policy costing expertise. It acts as the state's fiscal umpire with access to public service information. One Nation has had access to PBO services since its MP Rikkie-Lee Tyrell was elected to the upper house in 2022. The party recently came under scrutiny after the PBO found a massive underestimate in the cost of its family policies, leading to a public revision of figures by deputy leader Colleen Harkin.
Key Perspectives
Warren Pickering (One Nation Victorian leader): Says the PBO has been inaccurate over the past decade and the party will not waste resources using its costing service until it can conduct its own audit and "blow the books open."
Xavier Rimmer (Parliamentary Budget Officer): Encourages all parties to use the PBO's service, saying it combines expertise, independence, and comparability across parties.
Anthony Carbines (Labor Minister): Says One Nation's refusal to release costings shows it is not responsible enough to govern.
Colleen Harkin (One Nation deputy leader): Initially claimed the party's family policies would cost $136 million over four years, but revised that to per year after the PBO costed them at $688.7 million.
What to Watch
- Whether One Nation releases any costings before the election, especially if it conducts a preliminary audit.
- How the major parties use the PBO costings to attack One Nation's fiscal credibility.
- The PBO's potential response to Pickering's criticisms.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 11 supported.
Show each claim
- SupportedOne Nation vows spending transparency but refuses to release policy costings.The Age - Latest News: “One Nation vows spending transparency but refuses to release policy costings.”
- SupportedOne Nation’s Victorian leader vowed an online, real-time expenditure tracker if the party is elected.The Age - Latest News: “One Nation has vowed to create an online, real-time expenditure tracker as a way of revolutionising “the way that that budgets are done in this state” if elected”
- Partly supportedThe party would not engage with the PBO until it had an opportunity to audit state finances.The Age - Latest News: ““No, we won’t be engaging in that until we have an opportunity to blow the books open ourselves and revolutionise the way that that budgets are done in this state.””
- SupportedPickering said One Nation would not make costings public because it first wanted to audit the government’s finances.The Age - Latest News: “Pickering said on Monday that the party would not be making any costings public because it first wanted to conduct an audit of the government’s finances.”
- SupportedPickering questioned the PBO’s accuracy, asking when one of its cost projections had been accurate in the past decade.The Age - Latest News: ““We know there’s some great people at the PBO, but the reality is, when has one of their cost projections been accurate in the last decade?” he said.”
- SupportedThe PBO found a massive underestimate in the cost of a group of One Nation policies.The Age - Latest News: “One Nation recently came under scrutiny from the PBO for what the office found to be a massive underestimate of the cost of a group of policies.”
- SupportedColleen Harkin initially said the family policies would cost $136 million over four years.The Age - Latest News: “One Nation deputy leader Colleen Harkin initially told reporters the party’s plan to cover out-of-pocket pregnancy expenses for women in public hospitals, give $2000 payments to pregnant mothers in the private system and provide two $150 sport vouchers for school-aged children every year would cost $136 million over a four-year term.”
- SupportedThe PBO costed the plan at $688.7 million at the Liberal Party’s request.The Age - Latest News: “But at the request of the Liberal Party, the PBO independently costed the plan at $688.7 million – $553 million more than One Nation’s estimate.”
- SupportedHarkin later said the estimate was per year, which would still leave a $144.7 million shortfall against the PBO costing.The Age - Latest News: “The figures prompted Harkin to revise her position, telling The Australian the estimate was per year, not over four years. This would still create a $144.7 million shortfall on the PBO costings.”
- SupportedRimmer said the PBO service combines expertise and independence with comparability across parties.The Age - Latest News: ““While there are alternatives to the PBO’s election costing service, only the PBO’s service combines expertise and independence, with comparability across parties,” Rimmer said .”
- SupportedCarbines said people who could not provide policy costings were not taken very seriously.The Age - Latest News: ““People who can’t put forward any costings at all for their policy positions aren’t people we take very seriously.””
- SupportedPickering said the books were sufficiently cooked to warrant a full investigation.The Age - Latest News: ““We believe that the books are sufficiently cooked to warrant a full investigation,” he said.”