The world is on course for 2026 to be the second-hottest year on record, with a 20% chance of tying or beating 2024 as the warmest ever, the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service said in its monthly bulletin. An exceptionally strong El Nino is supercharging human-driven global warming. Copernicus said global temperatures are “virtually certain” to exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels in 2026.
October was the world's warmest October on record, with average global surface air temperatures 1.75C above pre-industrial levels, Copernicus reported. It was the third straight month above 1.5C, the preferred limit set in the 2015 Paris Agreement to avert the worst consequences of climate change.
"October has continued the pattern of remarkable global warmth, with record global and surface ocean temperatures," said Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which operates Copernicus. "An exceptionally strong El Nino is adding further heat to a climate already warmed by human activities."
The four-year average from 2023 to 2026 is also expected to exceed 1.5C, Copernicus said.
Forecasters say the El Nino, which has yet to peak, would likely become the strongest ever observed. Copernicus said the intensifying weather phenomenon set an all-time temperature record in a key Pacific zone last month. The natural climate cycle temporarily raises sea temperatures in the tropical Pacific, triggering changes in weather that can increase the risk of drought and flooding, and exacerbate man-made global warming.
The bulletin comes as nations prepare for the UN's two-week COP31 climate summit in Turkey, starting Monday. The meeting follows a year marked by deadly floods in Nepal, searing heatwaves in Europe and major wildfires in Indonesia.
The United Nations declared in September that the long-term 1.5C target would be missed in a matter of years. Scientists stress the need to cut greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels to limit the period of overshoot above 1.5C and bring temperatures back down.
Forecasters say El Nino could help make 2027 the hottest year on record.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- Exceeding 1.5C in a single year does not breach the Paris Agreement limit, but it signals how close the world is to the long-term threshold scientists warn against.
- A strong El Nino raises the likelihood of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods and heatwaves in vulnerable regions.
- The COP31 summit in Turkey takes place against a backdrop of record temperatures, putting pressure on nations to accelerate emission cuts.
Background
The 2015 Paris Agreement committed nations to limit global warming to "well below" 2C and pursue efforts for 1.5C. While the 1.5C target refers to a long-term average, the world has already experienced individual months and years above that level. The current El Nino is expected to be one of the strongest on record, adding heat to a climate system already warmed by greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels.
What to Watch
- Whether 2026 ties or surpasses 2024 as the hottest year on record, with Copernicus assigning a 20% chance.
- The peak of the El Nino later this year and its potential to push 2027 to a new record.
- Commitments from nations at COP31 to reduce emissions and limit the duration of any overshoot above 1.5C.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 12 supported.
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- Supported2026 is most likely to be the second-hottest year on record, according to the EU climate monitor.RTÉ News: “The world is on track for 2026 to be the second-hottest year on record”
- SupportedOctober was the third consecutive month above 1.5C.RTÉ News: “It was the third straight month exceeding 1.5C.”
- SupportedThere is a 20% chance that 2026 will tie or exceed 2024 as the warmest year ever.RTÉ News: “This year still has a "20% chance of tying or exceeding" 2024 as the warmest ever seen”
- SupportedAn exceptionally strong El Nino is adding heat to human-driven global warming.RTÉ News: “as an exceptionally strong El Nino weather pattern turbo charges human-driven global warming”
- SupportedCopernicus says global temperatures are virtually certain to exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels in 2026.RTÉ News: “Global temperatures are now "virtually certain" to exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels in 2026, Copernicus said.”
- SupportedOctober was the world's warmest October on record.RTÉ News: “The world experienced its warmest October on record, with average global surface air temperatures 1.75C above pre-industrial times”
- SupportedOctober's average global surface air temperature was 1.75C above pre-industrial levels.RTÉ News: “average global surface air temperatures 1.75C above pre-industrial times”
- SupportedSamantha Burgess said, “October has continued the pattern of remarkable global warmth, with record global and surface ocean temperatures,” and is identified as strategic lead for climate at ECMWF.RTÉ News: “"October has continued the pattern of remarkable global warmth, with record global and surface ocean temperatures," said Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)”
- SupportedBurgess said, “An exceptionally strong El Nino is adding further heat to a climate already warmed by human activities.”RTÉ News: “"An exceptionally strong El Nino is adding further heat to a climate already warmed by human activities," she said.”
- SupportedThe four-year average from 2023 to 2026 is expected to exceed 1.5C.RTÉ News: “The four-year average from 2023 to 2026 is also expected to top 1.5C”
- SupportedForecasters expect the El Nino, which has yet to peak, would likely become the strongest ever observed.RTÉ News: “Global forecasters have been warning for months that this El Nino, which is expected to peak later this year, would likely become the strongest ever observed.”
- SupportedCopernicus said the intensifying El Nino set an all-time temperature record in a key Pacific zone last month.RTÉ News: “The intensifying weather phenomenon set an all-time temperature record in a key Pacific zone last month, Copernicus said.”