AfD on brink of historic victory in Saxony-Anhalt's state election

The BBC described the vote as "a seismic election in the country's east." The AfD, led in the state by 35-year-old Ulrich Siegmund, is aiming to secure a majority in the regional parliament of Saxony-Anhalt. An outright win would mark the first time a far-right party has held state-level power in Germany's post-war era.

The Financial Review describes the AfD as anti-immigrant and pro-Kremlin, and reports that the party is "poised to break through" in a result that could rock Europe's political establishment.

Siegmund has dominated the campaign. Dubbed "Germany's Most Dangerous Man" by Der Spiegel magazine, he has brushed off reports that people previously connected to the neo-Nazi scene hold influential roles around him. His public image — social media posts showing him among admirers, riding a retro East German scooter — blends nostalgia for the past with an acute dissatisfaction with the present.

That dissatisfaction is fuelling support across the state. Voters voice frustration with immigration, public safety, Germany's struggling economy and high energy costs.

For the AfD's opponents, the prospect of a state-level victory represents "a point of serious peril," while the party itself sees it as "a stepping stone towards its dreams of nationwide power."

The result will also be felt in Berlin. Chancellor Friedrich Merz, whose conservative CDU leads the national government, pledged to halt the rise of the far right — yet the opposite has happened. Booed at recent public appearances, Merz is "hardly seen as an electoral asset," according to the BBC, and rumours persist about whether he can see out his term in office.

Why This Matters

A far-right majority in a German state parliament would break the post-war political consensus that has kept the far right from power at every level of government.
It would directly test Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who staked his credibility on stopping the AfD's rise and now faces questions about his political survival.
As Europe's largest economy, Germany's political direction carries continental consequences; a further shift in its eastern states would ripple through EU politics.

Background

The AfD began as an anti-euro party before shifting sharply to the nationalist, anti-immigration right. It has found its strongest support in Germany's eastern states, where the legacy of the communist era, weaker relative economic performance and anxieties about immigration and public safety have driven voters away from the mainstream parties. For decades, Germany's mainstream parties have refused to form coalitions with the far right — a convention known as the "firewall" (Brandmauer). An outright AfD majority in Saxony-Anhalt would test that convention in its most direct form, since no coalition partner would be required.

Key Perspectives

AfD supporters: See the party as the only force addressing their grievances over immigration, public safety, the struggling economy and high energy costs. For them, Siegmund is a charismatic outsider and victory would be a stepping stone to national power. Opponents of the AfD: Regard a state-level win as "a point of serious peril" — the crossing of a line that has held since 1945, with implications for democratic norms and minority protections. Chancellor Merz and the CDU: With the chancellor booed in public and his anti-AfD pledge in tatters, the party faces an internal crisis. Some in the CDU may see the result as grounds to move against Merz.

What to Watch

Whether the AfD secures an outright majority on Sunday or merely the largest share of seats, which would force coalition negotiations.
How mainstream parties respond — any softening of the refusal to cooperate with the AfD would itself be a historic shift.
Immediate fallout for Chancellor Merz, including any signs of a leadership challenge within the CDU after the count.

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