AfD's state election victory in Germany sends shockwaves across Europe

The weekend win by the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt has sent particular shivers across Europe, according to the ABC's Laura Tingle. The victory is especially troubling because Germany has been particularly sensitive to the rise of the far-right due to its history and has tried to guard against it.

The AfD's branch in Saxony-Anhalt has been designated a "right wing extremist organisation" by the state's domestic intelligence service, which the party says it will abolish if it wins government. The intelligence service cited the party's "numerous Islamophobic, racist, and even anti-Semitic statements" and its aim to "abolish parliamentary democracy in its current form" and "denigrate the democratic system... to fundamentally erode public trust in them." The agency noted there have been open calls within the AfD in the state "for a military coup against the German government."

The party wants to stop the teaching of Germany's Nazi past and focus instead on Prussian history. Many of its policies echo other far-right European parties, but what is most alarming to other western European countries is a central pledge to pursue a rapprochement with Russia. The AfD wants to expand Russian-language instruction, end sanctions against Russia imposed since the 2022 Ukraine war began, reject and even expel Ukrainian refugees, and cut support for Ukraine.

Germany has been the largest bilateral supporter of Ukraine in Europe, providing billions of euros in financial support and acting as a crucial conduit of weapons as the US has withdrawn from supplying them. If the AfD's win pressures the national government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz to change its pro-Ukrainian policies, it could decisively change the balance of the war.

Why This Matters

Germany's far-right party winning a state election could embolden similar movements across Europe and shift the political centre of gravity.
The AfD's anti-Ukraine, pro-Russia stance threatens to undermine Europe's largest bilateral supporter of Ukraine, potentially altering the course of the war.
The party's extremist designation and calls to abolish parliamentary democracy raise fundamental questions about the resilience of German democratic institutions.

Background

Germany has a deeply sensitive relationship with far-right politics due to its Nazi past. Post-war democratic institutions were designed to prevent such movements from gaining power. The AfD has grown steadily since its founding in 2013, initially as a eurosceptic party and later pivoting to anti-immigration and nationalist themes. Saxony-Anhalt, in the former East Germany, has been a stronghold for the party. The state's domestic intelligence agency has classified the AfD's local branch as a confirmed extremist organisation, a rare step that reflects the severity of its rhetoric and goals.

Key Perspectives

European Union and NATO allies: Alarmed by the prospect of a major EU member state shifting toward Russia, potentially fracturing the Western alliance on Ukraine. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's government: Under pressure to maintain a unified national policy on Ukraine while facing a rising electoral challenge from the far right. Critics and anti-fascist groups: Argue that the AfD's victory, even at state level, legitimises extremism and threatens the constitutional order, with the intelligence service's findings underscoring the party's anti-democratic aims.

What to Watch

Whether the AfD's victory in Saxony-Anhalt leads to shifts in Germany's national policy on Ukraine sanctions and arms supplies.
The response of other German states and the federal government, including potential legal or administrative actions against the AfD.
The reaction from Russia and whether Moscow capitalises on the AfD's success to push for a divided Europe.

ZOTPAPER