Alaska election could help decide Senate control, elect first Democratic governor since 2002

Peltola has centered her campaign on an anticorruption platform and appears likely to support Democratic investigations of the Trump administration, while Sullivan has been a reliable supporter of the president and the Senate Republican caucus, successfully advocating for a vast expansion of the Coast Guard and military in Alaska that brought hundreds of millions of dollars in construction projects. Two other candidates, independent Dan J. Sullivan and Republican Gerald Heikes, are each expected to take less than 3 percent of the vote. The Trump administration and other Republicans have indicated they may seek to dispute the legitimacy of a Peltola victory, citing a New York Times article that reported Democratic campaigners recruited Dan J. Sullivan as a spoiler. The likelihood of a successful challenge would fall if Peltola’s margin exceeds the total votes received by Dan J. Sullivan.

The governor’s race features four candidates with differing policy positions. Kreiss-Tomkins has put forward an ambitious agenda that includes restoring a state pension plan for teachers and employees, advancing public school funding, issuing a multimillion-dollar bond for electrical improvements across the state, imposing a temporary ban on new large-scale computing data centers, changing the state’s election system, and restricting trawl fisheries. Of the three Republicans seeking to succeed term-limited Gov. Mike Dunleavy, the leading candidate is Bernadette Wilson, who has Trump’s endorsement and has advocated a more aggressive push toward increasing the Permanent Fund dividend, even if it means breaking the existing limit on transfers from the fund. The other two Republicans, Treg Taylor, attorney general under Dunleavy, and Dave Bronson, have proposed policies largely in line with Dunleavy, including a harder limit on spending from the Permanent Fund, a position also advocated by Kreiss-Tomkins. Polling suggests Kreiss-Tomkins has strong odds of winning, and if he does, he would be the first Democrat elected governor of Alaska since Tony Knowles left office in 2002.

Ballot Measure 2 would replace Alaska’s current system, in which all candidates run together in top-four primaries followed by a ranked-choice general election, with party-run primaries that send one candidate from each party to a general election without ranked-choice voting. It would also repeal a requirement that third-party political donors reveal their funding sources, and because of a conflict with a measure approved in August, it could eliminate a limit on direct donations to governor candidates, permitting unlimited contributions. A final ruling on that elimination would come after the election.

In the U.S. House race, incumbent Republican Nick Begich III faces independent Bill Hill, imprisoned Democratic candidate Eric Hafner, and Libertarian Jim McDermott. The state Democratic Party opposes Hafner and urged party members to support Hill. Polling indicates Hafner could receive 5 percent or more of first-choice votes, which analysts say helps Begich’s re-election prospects. Hill has not said whether he would join Republicans or Democrats in the House but has stated he would not serve under Speaker Mike Johnson.

Control of the state legislature is also at play. Both chambers are currently held by coalition majorities that have been in conflict with Dunleavy, who vetoed more than a quarter of all bills passed, a record since statehood. If the coalitions hold and Kreiss-Tomkins is elected, the legislative and executive branches would be aligned on key issues such as teacher pensions and school funding. If the coalitions continue but a Republican is elected governor, or if Kreiss-Tomkins is elected but enough Republicans are elected to the Legislature to form a majority, some kind of discord is likely to continue.