Health department analysis released under Freedom of Information laws shows that while 44,000 Australians are expected to drop their cover in 2028-29, that forecast rises to 78,000 just one year later.
The proposal would wind back the rebate Australians aged 65 and over receive on their private health cover, banking about $3 billion to spend elsewhere in the aged care system. The federal government is counting on those savings, having already promised to funnel the money into other major aged care commitments.
The Coalition said Health Minister Mark Butler had consistently used the smaller figure to defend the policy. Shadow Health Minister Anne Ruston said older Australians cannot afford to live without private health insurance. "Either he didn't read his own briefs, or he's been deliberately misleading older Australians," she said.
The health department said the 44,000 estimate represented the "initial effect of the policy at a point in time" and noted the figures were subject to uncertainty, as they were based on historical data and responses that might not reflect future behaviour under new policy settings.
The proposal has drawn concern from the states and territories, aged care advocates and the private health insurance industry, who have questioned whether it would heap pressure on the public health system and affect vulnerable older Australians.
With the Coalition vowing to block the legislation in the Senate, the federal government must get the Greens on board for the bill to pass. The minor party said last week it would not support the legislation in its current form and is now canvassing options to amend it, such as exempting pensioners from the changes.
Last month the ABC revealed about $1.6 billion of the forecast savings would be clawed back from pensioners, according to Parliamentary Budget Office analysis. Departmental figures also show that of the more than 3.2 million older Australians affected by the changes, about 2 million live on less than $37,000 a year.