Arab parties poised to hold balance of power in tightly contested Israeli election

Disaffection and low turnout among Arab Israelis could determine outcome as far-right coalition faces challenge

By LineZotpaper

Published22 October 2026

Read Time3 min

With just days until Israel's general election, opinion polls suggest neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing coalition nor the centrist Change Bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot commands a clear path to a parliamentary majority, leaving Arab-majority parties potentially holding a critical balance of power. Arab Israelis, who make up about a fifth of the population, face a strong push to vote after years of disaffection and what activists describe as systematic discrimination and incitement.

Students in Nazareth, the largest Arab-majority city in Israel, have been handing out leaflets urging motorists to vote in next week's closely fought election. Many Arab Israelis, who often describe themselves as Palestinian citizens of Israel, hope to oust what they see as the most right-wing governing coalition in the country's history.

“I see it as our duty to bring down this extremist government. They treat us as second-class,” said Arkan Badran, a 23-year-old handing out flyers. “I call on all young men and women to vote for Arab lists, which represent us, because this is our future.”

Polls indicate that both Netanyahu's religious-nationalist bloc and Eisenkot's Change Bloc could each win around 50 of the 120 seats in parliament, with Arab-majority groupings potentially securing 13 or 14 seats. The main Arab lists are the Joint Arab List (a coalition of Hadash, Balad and Taal) and the smaller United Arab List, an Islamist party headed by Mansour Abbas.

However, all but one of the leading Jewish parties have ruled out forming a coalition with Arab parties. Eisenkot has said he would not do so, citing a lack of shared values. Netanyahu's campaign has sought to delegitimise Arab parties, putting up billboards suggesting a choice between “Right or Palestine” and using AI-generated videos portraying his opponents embracing Arab leaders.

“He's trying all the time to pull the legitimacy of the Arab parties — because they're Arab, because they're Palestinian,” said Mohammed Magadli, a news anchor at Radio Nas and analyst for Israel's Channel 12. “This is affecting the majority of the Jewish parties in Israel.”

Suha Salman Mousa of the Mossawa Centre, which advocates for equal rights for Arab citizens, accused ministers of “systematic discrimination and incitement” against Arab Israelis. She said that after the Hamas-led attack on 7 October 2023 and the subsequent war in Gaza, “we were treated as enemies of this country”, with shrinking space for free speech, major arrests, and people fired from jobs over social media posts or protests against the war.

United Arab List leader Mansour Abbas, who previously served as a minister in a short-lived government led by Naftali Bennett, believes Eisenkot and others may be more open to an alliance after the election. He wants to join the next government, saying “parliamentary representation is not enough to serve Arab society”. His party has given its number two slot to a Jewish former police official.

The Joint List, meanwhile, aims to act as an electoral “safety net” for those who could replace Netanyahu's government, supporting them in exchange for policy concessions.

A key issue for Arab Israeli voters is rampant gang crime. A September poll by the Israel Democracy Institute found this was the most important factor for 53.5% of Arab citizens when deciding how to vote. The Abraham Initiatives, a coexistence-promoting organisation, reported a record 252 murders in the Arab community last year, about five times the number of Jewish Israelis killed.

Analysis

Why This Matters

The outcome could determine whether Israel gets its most right-wing government yet or a more centrist coalition, affecting policy on the occupied territories, Palestinian relations, and civil rights for Arab citizens.
Arab Israeli disaffection and low turnout have historically shaped election results; a high Arab vote could tip the balance against Netanyahu.
The election is the first since the October 7, 2023 attacks and the Gaza war, which have deepened societal divisions and mistrust toward the Arab minority.

Background

Arab Israelis are descendants of Palestinians who remained within what became Israel during the 1948 war, when hundreds of thousands were forced from or fled their homes. They account for about a fifth of Israel's population. Israel's current government often frames them as a threat to the state's Jewish identity. After the October 7 attack, many faced increased hostility, budget cuts, and political campaigns seeking to deepen divisions. The election pits a veteran right-wing leader against a former military chief, with no clear majority in sight.

Key Perspectives

Netanyahu and his coalition: Argue that Arab parties are a threat to Israel's Jewish character and that a vote for the Change Bloc risks a “dangerous government” reliant on Arab support. They have used campaign materials depicting opponents as pro-Palestinian. Change Bloc/Eisenkot: Want to replace Netanyahu but have so far ruled out a coalition with Arab parties, citing value differences, which critics call racism. They hope to attract centrist voters put off by the far right. Arab parties (Joint List and United Arab List): Seek greater influence. The Joint List offers an opposition safety net in exchange for policy gains. The United Arab List wants to join the government to address issues like gang crime and discrimination. Both face a dilemma between working with Jewish parties and maintaining their Palestinian identity.

What to Watch

Turnout among Arab Israelis on election day; a low figure could help Netanyahu's bloc.
Whether United Arab List leader Mansour Abbas can persuade Eisenkot to form a coalition after the vote.
The final seat count and whether either bloc reaches 61 seats, triggering coalition negotiations that could last weeks.

Sources

How Arab parties could hold critical balance of power in Israeli election · BBC News

Checked

12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 9 supported.

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Partly supportedArab parties are poised to hold the balance of power in the Israeli election.BBC News: “Polls indicate that Arab parties could be left holding a critical balance of power.”
Partly supportedLow turnout among Arab Israelis could determine the election outcome.BBC News: “Disaffection has often driven down past turnout among Arab Israelis”
SupportedPolls suggest neither Netanyahu’s coalition nor the Change Bloc has a clear path to a parliamentary majority, leaving Arab-majority lists potentially holding the balance.BBC News: “Most opinion polls indicate that neither Netanyahu and his partners nor the main “Change Bloc”, led by centre-right former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, has a clear path to a parliamentary majority.”
Partly supportedThe Change Bloc is centrist.BBC News: “the main “Change Bloc”, led by centre-right former military chief Gadi Eisenkot”
SupportedArkan Badran said, “I see it as our duty to bring down this extremist government. They treat us as second-class,” and called on young people to vote for Arab lists.BBC News: ““I see it as our duty to bring down this extremist government. They treat us as second-class,” says Arkan Badran, 23, who is with the students giving out flyers. “I call on all young men and women to vote for Arab lists, which represent us, because this is our future.””
SupportedPolls indicate the two blocs could each win around 50 of 120 seats, while Arab-majority groupings could win 13 or 14.BBC News: “both Eisenkot’s bloc and Netanyahu’s religious-nationalist bloc could each win around 50 seats of the 120 in Israel’s parliament while 13 or 14 seats in total could go to Arab-majority groupings.”
SupportedNetanyahu’s campaign used AI-generated videos portraying his opponents embracing Arab leaders.BBC News: “The Netanyahu campaign has also used AI-generated videos to present his opponents embracing Arab leaders.”
SupportedMohammed Magadli said Netanyahu was “trying all the time to pull the legitimacy of the Arab parties” because they are Arab and Palestinian.BBC News: ““He’s trying all the time to pull the legitimacy of the Arab parties - because they’re Arab, because they’re Palestinian. This is affecting the majority of the Jewish parties in Israel.””
SupportedSuha Salman Mousa said Arab Israelis were treated as enemies of the country after the Hamas-led attack and subsequent war in Gaza.BBC News: ““After October 7, we were treated as enemies of this country,” says Suha Salman Mousa of the Mossawa Centre in Nazareth”
SupportedMansour Abbas said “parliamentary representation is not enough to serve Arab society.”BBC News: ““We’ve reached the conclusion that parliamentary representation is not enough to serve Arab society. We decided to take responsibility, to become part of the solution to our problems and to offer hope to both Arabs and Jews,” he tells me.”
SupportedA September Israel Democracy Institute poll found gang crime was the most important voting factor for 53.5% of Arab citizens.BBC News: “In September, a poll by the Israel Democracy Institute think tank found that this was the most important factor for 53.5% of Arab citizens when deciding which party to vote for.”
SupportedMurders in the Arab community reached a record 252 last year, about five times the number of Jewish Israelis killed.BBC News: “Murders within the community reached a record high of 252 last year – about five times higher than the number of Jewish Israelis who were killed, according to the Abraham Initiatives, a Jewish-Arab organisation that promotes coexistence.”