Arab-Israelis, who make up about 20 per cent of Israel's population but 80 per cent of its murder victims, have historically voted at far lower rates than Jewish Israelis. In the last election, just 53 per cent of Arab citizens voted, compared with a national average of 70 per cent. Some decline to vote on principle, refusing to legitimise the Israeli government, while others stay home out of apathy and disillusionment.
That is expected to change on Tuesday, according to Watfa Jebali, a co-founder of Mothers for Life, a group of grieving mothers demanding action against violent crime in Arab communities. Jebali's son Saad, 26, was shot dead in 2018 in the family grocery store in Tayibe, an Arab town near the West Bank border. She watched the murder on closed-circuit television. "It was all over in 30 seconds," she says. Saad left behind a wife and a six-month-old daughter.
Saad was one of 74 Arab-Israeli citizens murdered in 2018. That figure soared to a record 241 last year. The vast majority of killings involve Arab perpetrators and victims, with many linked to gang violence, racketeering, family feuds and entrenched disadvantage. The murder rate doubled within a year of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appointing far-right politician Itamar Ben-Gvir as national security minister after the 2022 elections. Ben-Gvir has run Israel's police force and prison system for the past four years, and his signature policies include a dramatic expansion of gun ownership, which critics say has allowed firearms to flood the black market.
"We have nobody to talk to in this government. We are desperate," Jebali says. "We live in Israel, we are citizens of this country, but no one is helping us. We are not even second-class citizens. We are third, fourth-class."
In Qalansawe, a town in the "Triangle" region on the West Bank border, residents express similar frustration. Mohammed, a history teacher, says he never used to vote but will this time. "We are suffering in the Arab society because of the fascist ministers," he says. "Crime families control the area and no-one is stopping them. This is like the Wild West here. At night, people are afraid to leave their homes. It didn't use to be this way."
Omar Abu Rass, 41, a restaurant owner, says he has only voted once before but is considering doing so now, with relatives pleading with him to cast a ballot. "There is a lot of shootings, a lot of murders," he says. "The police are not doing what they are supposed to do. Ben-Gvir is deliberately trying to hurt us."
The two main Arab groupings are the Joint List, a far-left alliance opposed to Israel's occupation of the Palestinian territories, and Ra'am, a socially conservative, more pragmatic party that made history by forming part of a short-lived government in 2021. In a canny move, Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas has put former top police officer Yoav Segalovitz second on his list, the first time a Jewish Israeli has run for an Arab party. The latest polls show Arab parties winning 15 or 16 seats in the Knesset, up from 10 at the last election.
With neither the pro-Netanyahu bloc nor the opposition bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot expected to command a majority on its own, the Arab parties could become kingmakers. But a coalition with Netanyahu looks out of the question given the far-right nature of his bloc, and two opposition leaders, Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, have said they will not serve in a government dependent on Arab support. Eisenkot has declared that no Arab or ultra-Orthodox party currently meets his criteria for joining his government, including supporting Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, endorsing universal conscription, and recognising Hamas as a terror group that must be destroyed.
Polling analyst and Haaretz columnist Dahlia Scheindlin has lamented what she called the foolish self-imposed arbitrary constraint of not forming coalitions with Arab parties, saying Eisenkot and his allies are boxing themselves into a corner for no gain.
Netanyahu has used his advertising to play on voters' fears of a government dependent on Arab parties, with the slogan "Right or Palestine," meaning a vote for anyone but his bloc will usher in a Palestinian state.
Hasan Taya, 60, drinking coffee in Qalansawe, says he feels insulted that the opposition is turning up its nose at voters like him. "We are 20 per cent of the country. Why push us aside?" he asks. Regardless of their promises, he expects the opposition to cut a deal with the Arab parties if needed to form a government.
Taiseer Mahamed, a conflict mediator from the Arab town of Umm al-Fahm, says the politicians' reluctance demonstrates how Arab-Israeli voters are being shunned.