ASEAN leaders gather in Manila as Trump’s Asia trip highlights trade disruptions

The summit, running from Sunday to Tuesday, will feature multilateral and bilateral meetings among bloc leaders. Trump is scheduled to meet Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr in Manila on Tuesday before heading to the APEC summit in Shenzhen, where he will have his fourth face-to-face meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in just over a year. The White House has confirmed it will also be the first time Trump, Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet for trilateral talks.

ASEAN’s meeting comes after the Trump administration imposed tariffs of 10 to 12.5 percent on 60 trade partners, including most Southeast Asian economies, in July, citing forced labour concerns. The US Supreme Court had earlier struck down steeper “reciprocal” tariffs. Additional trade probes over national security and manufacturing could bring further tariffs.

US imports from ASEAN rose more than 29 percent to $453.6 billion in 2025, expanding the trade deficit between the sides to $327.4 billion, according to the Office of the US Trade Representative. Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation in Singapore, said Southeast Asian countries cannot guarantee that their luck will continue. “ASEAN has had mixed success in navigating US tariffs. Overall exports are up. But this is primarily driven by shipments of electronics which are largely exempt from tariffs,” she told Al Jazeera. “These shipments are also strongly tied to the AI buildout. If that falters, ASEAN will feel it.”

Jayant Menon, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, said leaders will be concerned about “what comes next” from Trump. “Trump still retains significant autonomous authority over trade policy despite losing control of both houses, and could double down rather than back off,” he said.

Among the expected outcomes of the summit is the signing of the Digital Economy Framework Agreement, aimed at easing cross-border data transfers and electronic payments, and billed as a step towards building an ASEAN digital economy worth $2 trillion by 2030.

Phar Kim Beng, a professor of ASEAN studies at the International Islamic University of Malaysia, said intraregional trade remains low at 23 percent, and he does not expect significant measures to boost it. “Regardless of the tariffs intended by President Donald Trump, ASEAN will continue to muddle through by speaking of the importance of trade and more trade,” he said.