Broadcast TV still dominates political ad spending as midterm cycle hits record $11.6 billion

Broadcasters expected to capture nearly half of all midterm ad dollars, even as connected TV grows rapidly

By LineZotpaper

Published21 October 2026

Read Time3 min

Political advertising ahead of the US midterm elections is forecast to reach a record $11.6 billion, with traditional broadcast television expected to capture the largest share at 48 percent, according to data from advertising intelligence firm AdImpact. The 2025-26 cycle surpasses both the $11.2 billion spent during the 2024 presidential race and the $8.9 billion in 2022 midterms, underscoring broadcast's enduring role in campaign strategy despite the rise of digital platforms.

Broadcast television remains the dominant medium for political advertising in the United States, even as streaming and digital platforms attract a growing share of overall ad spend. AdImpact, an advertising intelligence company, projects that $5.6 billion of this cycle's total political ad spending will go to broadcast companies, which include networks such as NBC, ABC, CBS and Fox along with their local affiliate stations.

"It's still a local game," said Daniel Kurnos, equity research analyst at StoneX, in an interview. "Yes, there are national elections, but you have to win counties. And if you have to win counties, you have to reach voters in these counties." Kurnos noted that broadcast audiences tend to be more politically active, making them a key target for campaigns.

Terry Nelson, national political director for George W. Bush's 2004 reelection campaign and a founding partner of Plus Communications, told CNBC that broadcast spots allow strategists to reach large numbers of voters cost-effectively. He highlighted live sports events, such as NFL games, as particularly effective for delivering broad audiences across demographics.

Brad Seitter, CEO of the local broadcast industry trade group TVB, attributed broadcast's strength to "trust, reach and because it works." In a statement, Seitter said voters trust local broadcast news more than social media, making political ads more credible on that platform. "Nothing moves the needle in polling like running an ad on broadcast TV," he added, citing a TVB study that found 42 percent of Democrats and 49 percent of Republicans considered broadcast or cable television the most influential advertising medium for their vote.

However, some observers suggest habit plays a role. Erik Brydges, head of performance and political demand at ad company Magnite, said that many campaign consultants are simply accustomed to buying TV ads. "There's an old adage out there that no political consultant is ever going to get fired for suggesting buying more TV," he told CNBC.

Major broadcasters are already benefiting from the surge. Nexstar Media Group reported its highest quarterly revenue ever, reaching $1.99 billion in net revenue, with political ads contributing $75 million to legacy Nexstar growth. Gray Media, which Kurnos called "the most efficient political generator" among broadcast groups, has exposure in 12 competitive Senate races and all 11 competitive gubernatorial races. Sinclair and E.W. Scripps also reported strong political ad revenue in their latest quarters, with Scripps recording its highest second-quarter political revenue ever.

While broadcast remains dominant, connected TV (CTV) is the fastest-growing category of political ad spend, forecast to account for 23 percent or $2.7 billion of this cycle's spending, according to AdImpact. Brydges said CTV's share is likely to continue rising as the technology evolves.

Analysis

Why This Matters

Broadcast TV still commands nearly half of political advertising, providing a critical revenue stream for local stations and publicly traded broadcasters.
The record $11.6 billion in total political ad spend reflects the increasing cost of reaching voters in a fragmented media landscape.
Shifts to connected TV may reshape campaign strategies and pricing in future cycles.

Background

Political advertising has traditionally relied on local broadcast television because it efficiently reaches voters in specific congressional districts and states. While cord-cutting has steadily eroded cable and broadcast audiences in general viewing, broadcast's share of political ad dollars remains disproportionately high compared to its 7.7 percent share of overall US advertising. The midterm cycle is now forecast to be the most expensive election season in history, driven by competitive Senate, gubernatorial and House races.

Key Perspectives

Broadcasters and trade groups: They argue that broadcast TV offers unmatched trust, reach and measurable impact on voter behavior. Executives like E.W. Scripps CEO Adam Symson call it the most powerful medium for political messaging, while TVB's Brad Seitter highlights viewer trust as a key advantage over social media.

Analysts and digital ad executives: They acknowledge broadcast's current dominance but point to the rapid growth of connected TV. Magnite's Erik Brydges suggests some loyalty to broadcast is muscle memory, and that CTV will become more important as younger voters shift away from linear TV.

Campaign strategists: They value broadcast for its ability to deliver mass audiences efficiently, especially during live events like NFL games, and for its proven track record in moving polling numbers.

What to Watch

Connected TV's share of political ad spend: it is forecast at 23 percent for this cycle and could keep growing.
Next earnings reports from Nexstar, Gray Media, Sinclair and Scripps, which will show whether political ad revenue continues to accelerate.
Midterm election outcomes and whether the most competitive races shift ad dollars further toward or away from broadcast.

Sources

The political ad wars are still being fought over the airwaves even as digital gains share · US Top News and Analysis

Checked

12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 10 supported.

Show each claim

Partly supportedThe midterm cycle hits a record $11.6 billion in political ad spending.US Top News and Analysis: “The 2025-26 election cycle is forecast to be the most expensive on record, with a predicted $11.6 billion in total spending.”
SupportedBroadcast companies are expected to receive the largest share of midterm political ad spending, or 48 percent.US Top News and Analysis: “An estimated $5.6 billion of advertising spend ahead of the midterms, or 48%, is expected to go to broadcast companies, AdImpact found.”
SupportedThe forecast $11.6 billion exceeds the $11.2 billion spent during the 2024 presidential election cycle and the $8.9 billion spent during the 2022 midterms.US Top News and Analysis: “That's higher than the $11.2 billion spent on advertising during the 2024 presidential election cycle and the $8.9 billion spent during the 2022 midterms.”
SupportedDaniel Kurnos said, “It's still a local game,” and said campaigns have to win counties and reach voters in them.US Top News and Analysis: ““It's still a local game,” said StoneX Equity Research Analyst Daniel Kurnos in an interview. “Yes, there are national elections, but you have to win counties. And if you have to win counties, you have to reach voters in these counties.””
SupportedKurnos said broadcast audiences tend to be more politically active.US Top News and Analysis: “Broadcast audiences — those tuning into NBC, ABC, CBS, Fox or their local affiliate stations — are generally more politically active, Kurnos said”
SupportedBrad Seitter attributed broadcast's strength to “trust, reach and because it works.”US Top News and Analysis: “Brad Seitter, CEO of TVB, a trade organization representing the local broadcast industry, boiled down broadcast's strength during election cycles to “trust, reach and because it works.””
SupportedA TVB study found that 42 percent of Democrats and 49 percent of Republicans considered broadcast or cable television the most influential advertising medium for their vote.US Top News and Analysis: “According to a study conducted by TVB, 42% of Democrats and 49% of Republicans said broadcast or cable television was the most important form of advertising media in influencing how they cast their vote.”
SupportedErik Brydges said, “There's an old adage out there that no political consultant is ever going to get fired for suggesting buying more TV.”US Top News and Analysis: ““There's an old adage out there that no political consultant is ever going to get fired for suggesting buying more TV.””
SupportedNexstar reported its highest quarterly revenue ever, with $1.99 billion in net revenue and $75 million in political advertising revenue driving legacy Nexstar growth.US Top News and Analysis: “Net revenue hit $1.99 billion, and advertising revenue was $862 million, according to the August earnings report. ... legacy Nexstar that was primarily driven by $75 million of political advertising revenue”
SupportedGray Media had exposure in 12 competitive Senate races and all 11 competitive gubernatorial races.US Top News and Analysis: “Gray has exposure in 12 competitive Senate races and all 11 competitive gubernatorial races, according to Kurnos.”
SupportedConnected TV is forecast to account for 23 percent, or $2.7 billion, of this cycle's ad spending.US Top News and Analysis: “It's predicted to capture 23%, or $2.7 billion, of this cycle's ad spending, AdImpact found”
Partly supportedBrydges said connected TV's share is likely to keep rising as the technology evolves.US Top News and Analysis: “It's predicted to capture 23%, or $2.7 billion, of this cycle's ad spending, AdImpact found, and is likely to continue to gain share.”