China's elderly outnumber children as dependants for first time, data shows

The dependency ratio of people aged 65 and over to the working-age population rose to 23 per cent last year, overtaking the equivalent figure for children, which stood at 22 per cent, according to data from China's National Bureau of Statistics.

The figures show more than 223 million people in China are aged 65 and above, nearly 16 per cent of the total population, while about 213 million children are aged 14 and under. No official commentary was published with the statistics.

Chinese state-controlled outlet Global Times wrote that the nation's "entry into a moderately ageing society" results from a mix of factors, including the "size of past birth cohorts" and longer life expectancy. It said the shift could strain pension, healthcare and long-term care systems while creating opportunities in the so-called silver economy that caters to older consumers. Global Times quoted one researcher as saying: "It reflects a historical trend in demographic development rather than a short-term phenomenon."

Professor Stuart Gietel-Basten of the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology called the demographic shift "symbolic", saying it could suggest more public spending will move from families and schools to pensions and healthcare. He also questioned the dependency ratio as a measure, saying it risks "taking agency away" from older people, many of whom he says have been misrepresented as dependants, and that it does not account for improvements in healthcare.

Mu Zheng, a sociology lecturer at the National University of Singapore, said the ageing population may limit economic growth and people's spending power. Mu said the one-child policy, in place from 1980 to the end of 2015, played a key role in shrinking the population, leaving fewer younger people to support elderly relatives. The policy is estimated by the government to have prevented about 400 million births, though the figure has been contested.

Despite easing restrictions on family size, Beijing has struggled to persuade couples to have more children, with birth rates at historic lows. Mu cited changing gender roles, rising living costs and higher education levels as pressures on fertility. Beijing made further support for older people part of its five-year economic blueprint announced earlier this year, and more than 53 million elderly people were receiving senior citizen allowances and subsidies by the end of 2025. Global Times noted that many people entering old age who were born between the 1950s and the 1970s generally have higher incomes, stronger purchasing power and better health than previous generations.