The STAR 50 Index, which tracks technology and innovation companies on the Shanghai stock exchange, has plunged 40% since June, and indexes of major companies have dropped by about 20% over the same period. AI stocks account for more than 40% of stock market value in China and Hong Kong, according to Goldman Sachs, meaning falls in the sector spread across the whole market.
Dan Wang, China director of the Eurasia Group, described a “general anxiety” among technology companies about whether the state-backed model would work. “This year, the profit margin is not as good as expected. And the US is raising rates. And China’s domestic demand is so weak,” she said.
Beijing has invested heavily in AI, including a 60bn yuan state-backed fund that began pumping money into domestic developers this month. But Chinese consumers have been reluctant to spend, and many tech companies struggle to turn a profit. The government has doubled down on robotics, or “embodied AI”, as a way to deploy the technology across society and address an ageing population and shrinking workforce. Demand, however, comes mainly from government agencies and research institutions, not consumers, and products are still too expensive and impractical for home use. Shares in Unitree, China’s leading robot-maker, have halved since they started trading in August.
US restrictions have added to the pressure. The US has banned humanoid robots from China, citing national security risks, and is believed to be considering a ban on Chinese components in data centres. China relies heavily on exports, and restrictions in the US hurt domestic companies that struggle to sell enough at home.
Globally, the AI boom is expected to last at least another year. On Monday, US AI company Anthropic, maker of the chatbot Claude, filed paperwork for a planned IPO that could be the biggest stock market debut of all time, expected to bring in as much as $100bn. China has no such blockbuster IPOs on the horizon.
Policymakers are under pressure to introduce stimulus, but none are expected during a politically sensitive period. Top Chinese Communist Party officials are gathering this week for the fifth plenum, which will lay groundwork for next year’s 21st Party Congress, expected to confirm Xi Jinping for a fourth term as leader. Wang called any stimulus measure “high risk”, saying: “What if it doesn’t work out? Then whoever came up with that policy, that guy would be held accountable.”
